New "Pirates Of The Caribbean 2" line at Pinny...

Tomfoolery · #1 06-29-2006, 04:28 PM

For - Fri 7/7

Over $150mil -150
Under $150mil +134

Any ideas?

Wyrm2 · #2 06-29-2006, 04:42 PM

you misread it... (or it got changed).

Over 107.5mil -150
Under 107.5Mil +134

Thremp · #3 06-29-2006, 04:44 PM

Line pulled. O/U was 105 mil with action on the over like -150/+134.

If it opens in 4000 theatres (probably a shade high) it'll need to do $26,250 which looks very doable. Looks like this line is very 50/50. I picked up a unit on the under with good odds. Though this very well could be one of the top 5 grossing movies of all time. Should have an opening easily 2x bigger than the last one.

Only real competition is Superman which'll have really tailed off after the holiday weekend. Something else to factor is that I don't think the week after fourth of July is a huge movie weekend. But it's all speculation when you start to get his high with movie lines :x

It's now 107.5

llabb · #4 06-29-2006, 04:58 PM

I like the Over. Haven't done extensive research yet, but I think this breaks the all-time opening weekend record.

I missed the Superman lines, since they were only available a short time period, and I wasn't online then. Fortunate to be here at the right time today, as I got on the Over 105 line around -130. Need to do more research to wager more though.

Thremp · #5 06-29-2006, 05:07 PM

~114 or so I think is all-time.

I think when you get this high a lot of things really start coming in play. You can't average more than 30k a theatre per weekend so you need to be in a ton of theatres. Mid-night showings and other things really start to come into play. Holiday weekends would also help a huge amount. This movie does a phat built in fan base, but stranger things have happened when they get this high.

I think a ~40 mil opening day would lock this bad boy in.

freerollin · #6 06-29-2006, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
~114 or so I think is all-time.

[/ QUOTE ]

didn't Aquaman beat this at $116 mill?

brendanb438 · #7 06-29-2006, 05:43 PM

I got on the O of 90 Million at sportsbook for the $200 max bet to win $130 at -140. I think sportsbooks line is now around $96 O/U so check this out for some interesting ARBS and middles. I am waiting to see what WSEX puts this one at. I really really see this doing well but the best weekend of all time is Spiderman 1 I believe with $114.7 Million.

I think POTC2 would have to have a spread around

Friday $40 Million
Saturday $45 Million
Sunday $30 Million

which is tough to say the least to break that $114.7 mark.

Brendan

Thremp · #8 06-29-2006, 05:59 PM

Holiday weeked so potentially Sunday could be bigger, but not by much.

almostbusto · #9 06-29-2006, 06:03 PM

as of today i have this is my positioning on POTCII.

risking 600 to win 500 -120 O102
risking 200 to win 142.86 -140 O90
risking 142 to win 190.28 +134 U107.5
risking 142 to win 170.4 +120 U107.5
risking 142 to win 204.48 +144 O105

how's my betting?

i didn't predict all the line movements that well and i kind of wish i had more money floating out there at this point. but i think everyone of my wagers so far is +EV. i hope to pick up a lot more though. in the interests of making more money and also reducing my risk.

here's hoping for 106 at the boxoffice

llabb · #10 06-29-2006, 06:31 PM

Great betting busto and brendan. I really like the Over on this one, at any level posted so far. Interest in Pirates seems to be on par with Spiderman 1, and the draw for this is so much more diverse. Action/romance/adventure. Young guys/old guys/young women/old women/kids/families, it will draw them all. This one looks to me like it'll have the Shrek-->Shrek 2 jump.

So I'd say the Over, and arbs/middles are the way to go. The sportsbook.com (and related books) Over that is currently fluctuating in the high 90's is an easy Over, but has a limit of $200.

Betwwts.com has an Over/Under 102 million, also an easy Over, with a higher limit of $500. These can be taken simply for the Over imo, but can also be middled/arbed with Pinny's 105 or 107.5, perhaps at +odds if you wait for the right line. Betwwts.com is currently offering a 15% bonus + $20 free bet for new accounts. If you sign up there for the wager, please refer me and I will split the referral bonus with you. (No affiliation to the book, just signed up there to make the POTC2 wager.)

I was also able to take the Pinny Over at 105 at +115, must have been due to people arbing/middling and taking the Under there. Once the arb factor is gone though (which is a limited supply anyway, due to those books' betting limits), my guess is that Pinny goes way up. Probably back to the 107.5 and heavy -odds on the Over. All of these lines are too low imo.