KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[mikeca]

I re-read SSHE discussion of the hand on pg 163. It is similar except for the flush draw. I’m not sure why the possible flush draws changes things. Flush draws are not folding anyway. There are several foot notes to the discussion. Footnote 62 points out that someone with a back door flush or straight draw is getting correct odds to call on the flop if you don’t raise. AlienBoy pointed this out two.

The more interesting footnote is 63 that says that “some people disagree with this advice”. It does not say who the “some people” were that disagreed. It is not clear if this means one of the three authors disagreed with this advice or whether other authorities that reviewed the book disagreed.

Given that “some people” disagree with this, I guess it is not surprising that there is disagreement here.

[SNOWBALL]

I think call turn and fold UI on river is best.
2nd best is calling every turn and every river
worst is folding for one more

At least that's according to my stove, and I thought I gave the 3 bettor a pretty tight range (i.e. not too many 2 pairs)

[gobbledygeek]

I also re-read this SSHE discussion last night and the footnotes are definitely interesting. I dunno, I still like the flop raise because, as the footnote states, we do have an advantage here. The footnote goes on to describe how we will have a larger advantage waiting until the turn to raise. But the huge drawback could be the possibility of UTG not leading the turn and now we're screwed; we didn't take advantage of our equity on the flop, nor charge weak draws, and now on the turn gutshots still have the odds to come along.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
The footnote goes on to describe how we will have a larger advantage waiting until the turn to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also we won't always have a larger advantage because we're raising any turn, good and bad, rather than waiting for a safe turn card.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The footnote goes on to describe how we will have a larger advantage waiting until the turn to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also we won't always have a larger advantage because we're raising any turn, good and bad, rather than waiting for a safe turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would not constitute a "safe" turn card here? other than an A or maybe a 9, nothing else appears TOO threatening.

if you want take that argument, then i think this example is an even more appropriate time to take a raise turn line (than the SSHE example). in the SSHE example, because of the FD we could easily be raising right into a made flush on the turn.

[gobbledygeek]

How confident are we that UTG is going to lead the turn? He's already played his hand strangely with the limp/raise. If you have any doubts about this, does this lean towards a flop raise?

[James.]

I would jam the flop.

We potentially give up a bunch of value waiting to pop the turn. The obvious trade-off being that we expect to win the pot UI more often by waiting to raise. There are some problems and risks with waiting for the turn, and they outweigh the benefits(IMO).

UTG has played his hand kind of screwy. He has AA some portion of the time, but usually he has a “wtf gamboool!” hand like 66 or QJ or Axs. When he bets the flop and gets called in multiple spots he is usually not leading the turn. If he does lead the turn again it’s because he has the AA or 99 or less often QQ. Point is, I don’t think we get bet into on the turn by a worse hand often enough to wait.

[MrWookie]

[ QUOTE ]
If he does lead the turn again it’s because he has the AA or 99 or less often QQ. Point is, I don’t think we get bet into on the turn by a worse hand often enough to wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really key here. I don't have quite enough live experience to estimate unknowns in this spot, and our read was not extensive about this. Online, I generally expect people to keep betting until I tell them not to, ESPECIALLY if they were getting out of line and LRRing w/o AA. Online, often times a dumb LRR with cheese is done by a bully who thinks he can fold everyone. If the case live is that the majority of the time he's the kind of player who will only be betting the turn with a hand that has us crushed, then obviously the plan to wait for the turn is a poor one. I was pretty solidly in the "wait" camp, but this would definitely push me to raise the flop.

[KitCloudkicker]

fwiw, i have now read the example in SSHE more carefully.

the preflop action is that there is an open raiser, and you are next in with KK and 3 bet. some people cold call, and the PFR caps. you call.

the flop is T95 two tone, and the PFR bets.

in this example, because the PFR is not a LRR, it is pretty obvious that he has an overpair JJ-AA (or a set of tens). thus, we can safely smooth call the flop and pretty much always guarantee a turn bet (unless an Ace falls and he doesnt have AA).

this is different from my example. in the hand posted here, although i thought it was likely the LRR had QQ-AA, it is very possible he has a random pair/suited connector/overs and is just gambling preflop and on the flop. thus, since a turn bet by him is not guaranteed, raising the flop becomes the preferred play.

just thought i'd point out what i see is now the key difference between the two hands.

[leprous_hand]

[ QUOTE ]

imo, the unique thing about limit poker is that, in reality, all hands (except the unbeatable nuts) are essentially draws until all 5 cards are dealt. For example, you have black TT, someone has KhQh, and another has A9. the flop is 9h3h2s. who is charging who in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]


whoa.... this is very deep