WSOP ME Field Bet

[Post-Oak]

WSEX now has an option to bet the field for the WSOP Main Event at -600.

They list 310 players (pros with a few celebrities mixed in).

I think this line should be between -1500 and -1000, so I see some value in this bet.

Also, they have a field bet for the HORSE tourney which pays +250. They list 58 people, some of whom may not play. From what I have heard, somewhere between 120 to 200 people should be joining this tourney. I think there is value in taking the field at this price.

I realize that many people will disagree with the value of the ME field bet, but I don't see how anyone can question the value in the HORSE field bet. Unless someone expects 120 entrants to be an exaggeration?

Comments?

[youtalkfunny]

I think a no-name is much more likely to win the ME than the HORSE.

But what do I know?

[dlorc]

ME bet is horrible, the HORSE bet..depends on the player list.
If its got Phil Ivey, DN and David Benyamine on it I'd take it.

I've heard 150-250 being thrown around on entry figures.

[Thremp]

Field bets are usually very good.

I would take my chance easily with the field bet on both without seeing either player list really.

1) Tourney NLHE is very luck heavy. Getting you stack in as a 80/20 favorite still ends up blowing sometimes (Raymer in 05 and whoever that black chick was that sucked out over and over and over.

2) Most "pros" are very one game specialized. Phil Hellmuth blows at most HORSE events. Todd Brunson who could be another entrant is a LHE HU specialist. Ivey's a bad bad man and there are some other guys who're pretty nasty with a good overall feel. I think some of the older players and those in the Big Game have a decided advantage. Or those that play any UB game Phil H. is in.

Why would DN be very competetive at HORSE? One of his very best games isn't even on the list...

[dlorc]

Gee I dont know maybe his background in limit holdem and omaha/o8 as well as playing both stud variants in the big game.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Gee I dont know maybe his background in limit holdem and omaha/o8 as well as playing both stud variants in the big game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad they don't play Omaha and there are 3 stud variants. I'd think it'd be very intersting to look at the bets and see what they are. I don't think they would be very accurate at all. I think that the odds of a Erik Sagstrom or other internet player with a very well rounded game stepping and winning especially a tourney happens more often than not. Like the ME with huge huge fields.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Field bets are usually very good.

I would take my chance easily with the field bet on both without seeing either player list really.

1) Tourney NLHE is very luck heavy. Getting you stack in as a 80/20 favorite still ends up blowing sometimes (Raymer in 05 and whoever that black chick was that sucked out over and over and over.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is the way I look at it also.

It is true that the WSOP starts off with 200 BBs and 100 minute levels, but there is still a huge amount of luck involved in this tournament.

As for the HORSE, I can't see how taking 2/3 to 3/4 of the players at +250 can be negative EV. They are giving you most of the players, AND you get 5 to 2 odds.

Of course, people who have the assumption that certain pros have massive edges in either of these tournamants could (and do) disagree.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
ME bet is horrible, the HORSE bet..depends on the player list.
If its got Phil Ivey, DN and David Benyamine on it I'd take it.

I've heard 150-250 being thrown around on entry figures.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the HORSE list:


PHIL IVEY 16-1
JENNIFER HARMAN 20-1
BARRY GREENSTEIN 20-1
DOYLE BRUNSON 20-1
DANIEL NEGREANU 22-1
DAVID BENJAMIN 24-1
TED FORREST 24-1
CHIP REESE 24-1
CHRIS FERGUSON 28-1
ERIC LINDGREN 28-1
JOHNNY CHAN 30-1
JOHN JUANDA 30-1
TODD BRUNSON 30-1
CHAU GIANG 30-1
ERIK SEIDEL 30-1
ALLEN CUNNINGHAM 33-1
MIKE MATUSAW 33-1
HOWARD LEDERER 35-1
JEFFREY LISANDRO 35-1
MINH LY 35-1
ELI ELEZRA 40-1
TUAN LE 40-1
MEN NGUYEN 45-1
GUS HANSEN 45-1
SHAHRAM SHEIKHAN 45-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 50-1
PATRIK ANTONIUS 50-1
SCOTTY NGUYEN 50-1
PHIL HELLMUTH 50-1
MAX PESCATORI 50-1
MIMI TRAN 50-1
SCOTT FISCHMAN 50-1
LEE SALEM 50-1
MARCEL LUSKE 50-1
AMIR VAHEDI 55-1
BILLY GAZES 55-1
ROBERT WILLIAMSON III 55-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 55-1
CARLOS MORTENSEN 55-1
DAVID WILLIAMS 55-1
HARRY DEMETRIOU 55-1
ANDREW BLOCH 55-1
MIKE CARO 55-1
ANNIE DUKE 55-1
DAVID GREY 55-1
T.J. CLOUTIER 60-1
HUCK SEED 60-1
PHIL GORDON 60-1
CHAD BROWN 60-1
JAMES VAN ALSTYNE 66-1
DAVE "DEVILFISH" ULLIOT 66-1
MARK SEIF 66-1
STEVE ZOLOTOW 66-1
ALLEN KESSLER 66-1
MIKE SEXTON 80-1
BARRY SHULMAN 80-1
FREDDY DEEB 80-1
DAVID SKLANSKY 80-1
FIELD (ALL OTHERS) 5-2

Keep in mind that some of the listed players may not even play.

If we take your assumption that 150-200 entrants are likely, then I love the field bet at 5 to 2 (+250).

[Rick305]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ME bet is horrible, the HORSE bet..depends on the player list.
If its got Phil Ivey, DN and David Benyamine on it I'd take it.

I've heard 150-250 being thrown around on entry figures.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the HORSE list:


PHIL IVEY 16-1
JENNIFER HARMAN 20-1
BARRY GREENSTEIN 20-1
DOYLE BRUNSON 20-1
DANIEL NEGREANU 22-1
DAVID BENJAMIN 24-1
TED FORREST 24-1
CHIP REESE 24-1
CHRIS FERGUSON 28-1
ERIC LINDGREN 28-1
JOHNNY CHAN 30-1
JOHN JUANDA 30-1
TODD BRUNSON 30-1
CHAU GIANG 30-1
ERIK SEIDEL 30-1
ALLEN CUNNINGHAM 33-1
MIKE MATUSAW 33-1
HOWARD LEDERER 35-1
JEFFREY LISANDRO 35-1
MINH LY 35-1
ELI ELEZRA 40-1
TUAN LE 40-1
MEN NGUYEN 45-1
GUS HANSEN 45-1
SHAHRAM SHEIKHAN 45-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 50-1
PATRIK ANTONIUS 50-1
SCOTTY NGUYEN 50-1
PHIL HELLMUTH 50-1
MAX PESCATORI 50-1
MIMI TRAN 50-1
SCOTT FISCHMAN 50-1
LEE SALEM 50-1
MARCEL LUSKE 50-1
AMIR VAHEDI 55-1
BILLY GAZES 55-1
ROBERT WILLIAMSON III 55-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 55-1
CARLOS MORTENSEN 55-1
DAVID WILLIAMS 55-1
HARRY DEMETRIOU 55-1
ANDREW BLOCH 55-1
MIKE CARO 55-1
ANNIE DUKE 55-1
DAVID GREY 55-1
T.J. CLOUTIER 60-1
HUCK SEED 60-1
PHIL GORDON 60-1
CHAD BROWN 60-1
JAMES VAN ALSTYNE 66-1
DAVE "DEVILFISH" ULLIOT 66-1
MARK SEIF 66-1
STEVE ZOLOTOW 66-1
ALLEN KESSLER 66-1
MIKE SEXTON 80-1
BARRY SHULMAN 80-1
FREDDY DEEB 80-1
DAVID SKLANSKY 80-1
FIELD (ALL OTHERS) 5-2

Keep in mind that some of the listed players may not even play.

If we take your assumption that 150-200 entrants are likely, then I love the field bet at 5 to 2 (+250).

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, WSEX just robs people



World Series Of Poker: 2006 World Series Of Poker 50K H.O.R.S.E
Thu 8/10 2006 WSOP 50K H.O.R.S.E Outright Winner (ALL IN)
12:00 PM 101 Phil Ivey +3100
102 Jennifer Harman +5300
103 Barry Greenstein +5000
104 Doyle Brunson +5400
105 Daniel Negreanu +4800
106 David Benjamin +4600
107 Ted Forrest +5000
108 Chip Reese +4900
109 Chris Ferguson +5000
110 Eric Lindgren +5000
111 Johnny Chan +4600
112 John Juanda +5000
113 Todd Brunson +5300
114 Chau Giang +5300
115 Erik Seidel +5000
116 Allen Cunningham +5600
117 Mike Matusow +7700
118 Howard Lederer +6000
119 Jeffrey Lisandro +6400
120 Minh Ly +6000
121 Eli Elezra +6600
122 Tuan Le +6000
123 Men Nguyen +5500
124 Gus Hansen +7000
125 Shahram Sheikhan +7400
126 Michael Mizrachi +7000
127 Patrik Antonius +6950
128 Scotty Nguyen +7100
129 Phil Hellmuth +5000
130 Max Pescatori +6900
131 Mimi Tran +7900
132 Scott Fischman +6900
133 Lee Salem +8000
134 Marcel Luske +6950
135 Amir Vahedi +7700
136 Billy Gazes +7300
137 Robert Williamson III +7700
138 Carlos Mortensen +7700
139 David Williams +7500
140 Harry Demetriou +9500
141 Andrew Bloch +8500
142 Mike Caro +8200
143 Annie Duke +8200
144 David Grey +8200
145 T.J. Cloutier +7500
146 Huck Seed +6000
147 Phil Gordon +8500
148 Chad Brown +8400
149 James Van Alstyne +7400
150 Dave "Devilfish" Ulliot +7600
151 Mark Seif +7400
152 Steve Zolotow +9100
153 Allen Kessler +9600
154 Mike Sexton +7300
155 Barry Shulman +7600
156 Freddy Deeb +7500
157 David Sklansky +6600
158 Layne Flack +7500
159 Joseph Hachem +8600
160 Greg Raymer +8500
161 Phil Laak +8500
162 John D'Agostino +6300
163 Sam Farha +8500
164 Billy Baxter +8500
165 Alan Boston +6800
166 Jean-Robert Bellande +9500
167 Russ Hamilton +10000
168 Prahlad Friedman +7300
169 Blair Rodman +7200

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Man, WSEX just robs people


[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like you got your list from Pinnacle. This list (on Pinnacle) was not there last night, but I did see it this morning.

However, the Pinnacle list does not have the all important "field" option. Betting on any individual player is certainly negative EV anyway, but you are right that it is less negative if you use Pinnacle.