Who calls for set value?

[HEK]

Maybe this is basic...I donnu. But I think I overestimate my implied odds preflop even when I put my opponent on a specific hand.

I love flopping sets and cracking aces. Who calls for set value here? Who folds? Also, what if you hand is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are you more or less likely to call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) converter

Button ($2234.50)
SB ($2502)
Hero ($2679.81)
UTG ($2979)
MP ($1917.50)
CO ($2157.41)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $500</font>

It's $280 to call.

[D104]

I usually stick with the 10:1 rule, and if my math is correct you're getting 2444/280, or 8.7:1 to call. I think its a fold, if your range for this guy is only pairs higher than yours.

D

[Finwe]

If you're stipulating that he has AA a very high % here then you should fold. You know its 7.5-1 to flop a set, but with redraws and such I usually say around 9-1 depending on alot of things. You would need to average 2520 when you hit your set, obviously not happening with his stack.

The real question is what his hand range is, which in a lot of aggressive s/h'ed button/blind confrontations is wider than AA/KK/QQ.

Fin

[yabastid]

How often do you just call his first raise PF?

[HEK]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you just call his first raise PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes I call other times I raise. Or, 48.7282736382734% of the time.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you just call his first raise PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

if i am calling preflop its for deception; I nearly always play back in this spot.

[yabastid]

Are we putting him on exactly AA/KK here? So if you do call are you playing "no set no bet" even if the flop comes rags? Or do you lead a non over card flop or check/call a flop bet?

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're stipulating that he has AA a very high % here then you should fold. You know its 7.5-1 to flop a set, but with redraws and such I usually say around 9-1 depending on alot of things. You would need to average 2520 when you hit your set, obviously not happening with his stack.

The real question is what his hand range is, which in a lot of aggressive s/h'ed button/blind confrontations is wider than AA/KK/QQ.

Fin

[/ QUOTE ]


You need to take another mathematical look at this problem even assuming villain always has AA/KK (and it is important to factor in whether he would ever make this move with AK here). Although like you I normally make it around 9-1 for several reasons as well, instead of the true odds of 7.5-1 on flopping a set against against a suspected overpair, in this case anything over the 7.5-1 so that it is not merely a breakeven proposition is what I would be willing to take. And in this case, the amount those odds are figured on is the last $300 he has to call. He is getting 2.5-1 on that call, but only needs to be able to win over a further 5-1 on that call via villain's remaining stack to make it a proper call. After that raise villain will have ~1700 left or about 5.6-1. So altogether, hero is getting ~8.1-1 to flop a set.

The reason I am willing to forgoe higher odds I usually like as well, is that hero is always (should) folding when he doesn't flop a set, and villain is ALWAYS going broke when he does because of the size of the pot on the flop versus his remaining stack (there might be exceptions to *always* but they are few and far between and would assume being able to make an underbet and fold to a raise or hero's action on the turn). In fact for this reason, villain was too cute with his reraise amount, and should have made it a little higher.

And regarding OP's second hypothetical question, always fold 76s in that spot when reraised.