Super Bowl Line

[Thremp]

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I was just suprised when you attacked my post so harshly.

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If you read more of his posts you wouldn't find it so surprising. He only posts when he has a chance to tell someone they are wrong. Normally he does this in the rudest way possible.

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Holla!

[KCFire105]

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manning doesn't care about winning the superbowl,

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are you kidding me?

[NajdorfDefense]

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I was just suprised when you attacked my post so harshly.

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If you read more of his posts you wouldn't find it so surprising. He only posts when he has a chance to tell someone they are wrong. Normally he does this in the rudest way possible.

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Well, he doesn't understand that results in Sept are not the same as results from 2 days ago, with different systems and personnel in place for both teams, how do you expect him to behave?
Would you weight the loss to GB the same as other games? I sure wouldn't. Anyone who does fundamentally misunderstands handicapping.

If you said, "Indy's covered 3 playoff games, they are more likely to cover now!" you'd be wrong based on that alone.

If you said "Indy is more likely to cover because the books or public is systematically undervaluing them/overvaluing CHI in the playoffs/past x games," then you can make a case for that argument, whether right or wrong.

[Troll_Inc]

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Alex,

It is one of the most widely held misconceptions in stats.

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Could you be more explicit, what do you mean by "it"?

[Thremp]

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Alex,

It is one of the most widely held misconceptions in stats.

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Could you be more explicit, what do you mean by "it"?

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Past performance being indicative of future performance, without an underlying reason for the change. Its like the sports betting equivalent of inertia.

[Troll_Inc]

Maybe I missed it, but Bodog has no moneyline on the Superbowl?

What's the chance of Chicago winning outright vs Indy?

I would say Chicago wins 25-30% of the time, while Indy is at 70-75%.

[4Tay]

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What about the over/under line? Any thoughts?

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Anyone?

[noggindrill]

over looks to be the p[lay as recent sb trends indicate and these teams defenses are both suspect

[BobJoeJim]

Okay, so I finally went through and updated my NFL rankings spreadsheet that I hadn't touched since the first month of the season, and it has the Bears rated about 3 points BETTER than the Colts. Is it accurate? Almost certainly not, but this same rating system made me pretty good money this year betting on college football, so if it carries over at ALL to the NFL I feel compelled to follow it, which brings me to my actual question:

Which of these lines currently available on the Mansion Exchange (the only place I currently have money available to bet with) is best, if you operate under the assumption that Chicago should ACTUALLY be favored by three.

Chicago moneyline (+222)
Chicago +6 (+114)
Chicago +6.5 (+106)
Chicago +7 (-107)
Chicago +7.5 (-122)

[Grasshopp3r]

Bodog does not put up their moneyine until a week before the game. The line started at -250/+250 and it is now -240/+200, which I find interesting.