Week 4 College Football Weekend Thread

[MyTurn2Raise]

Thursday morning

[kdog]

Looks like he was 3-3 in the NFL today(assuming you shopped).

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Sunday Dr Bob

One Best Bet and 6 Strong Opinions.

Cincinnati (+3) 3-Star at +3 1/2, 2-Stars at +3.

Strong Opinions
Houston (+6)
Buffalo - New England UNDER (42)
Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
Chicago (-3)
Dallas - Chicago UNDER (41 1/2)
Tennessee (+3 1/2)

3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati 26 SEATTLE (-3.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
There aren’t too many people that are eager to jump on Cincinnati after they allowed an astounding 51 points at Cleveland last week. However, this is the perfect time to play the Bengals as the defense will no doubt be motivated by that embarrassing performance. Cincinnati applies to a very good 49-12-1 ATS bounce-back situation this week and that angle is 12-0 ATS if the team allowed 40 points or more in their previous game. The Bengals also apply to a solid 100-38-6 ATS situation that is based on their upset loss. Cincinnati’s offense certainly looks fine, as they did score 45 points in last week’s loss, and Seattle is a below average team that is having their own defensive issues after allowing 6.8 yards per play to Arizona last week. My ratings favor Seattle by 3 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-1.20 odds or better) or at +3 (+1.05 odds or better) and I’ll make the Bengals a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.10 to +1.05 odds) or at +3 ½ (-1.21 to -1.35 odds)

Strong Opinion
HOUSTON 23 Indianapolis (-6.0) 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Colts are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite after barely getting past the Titans last week and I look for that trend to continue. Houston is 2-0 with convincing wins over Kansas City and at Carolina last week and the Texans appear to be the real deal. It was assumed that quarterback Matt Schaub would upgrade a Houston offense with good talent at receiver and Schaub has not disappointed while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per pass play. Schaub is not going to maintain that blistering pace, but he is clearly a better than average quarterback. The problem for Schaub this week is the absence of star receiver Andre Johnson, who is about with a sprained knee. Johnson has averaged an incredible 13.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season and the rest of Schaub’s passes have averaged just 6.3 ypa (7.1 ypa to the other wideouts). What makes the Texans a better than average team is an improved defense that struggled with a young and inexperienced lineup last season. Those young players have blossomed and Houston has yielded just 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yards per pass play in two games. Last year’s #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams and rookie 1st round pick DT Amobi Okoye each have 2 sacks to their credit and there is star talent at linebacker (DeMeco Ryans) and in the secondary (CB Dunta Robinson). Peyton Manning leads another very good Colts’ offense and the defense has played well but my ratings would have only favored Indianapolis by 4 points with Johnson playing. Replacing Johnson’s great numbers with the average of the rest of the receiving corps makes a difference of 3 points, so I now favor Indy by 7 points. The reason for siding with Houston is a solid 66-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation and the Colts’ recent history as a road favorite. Houston, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games as a home underdog, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in week 16 last year, so they should have the confidence to win this game. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make Houston a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 26 St. Louis 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Buccaneers bounced back from their opening day loss to Seattle with a resounding win over the Saints and I expect Tampa to win again this week over a struggling Rams team that has lost consecutive games as favorites to start the season. Teams that lose consecutive games as a favorite are only 42% ATS in their next game (since 1980) and St. Louis applies to a 43-86-2 ATS subset of that situation. I certainly don’t mind fading a Rams team with a banged up offensive line and my ratings favor Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points. The situation isn’t strong enough to make Tampa a Best Bet at -3 ½ points, but I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d make the Bucs a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.15 odds or better)

Strong Opinion
CHICAGO (-3.0) 21 Dallas 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Cowboys have scored 82 points in two games, but it’s tough to maintain such a high level of performance in the NFL and teams that score 31 points or more in consecutive weeks are just 67-104-7 ATS the next week if they’re on the road. Dallas applies to a 2- 20-4 ATS subset of that situation and Chicago is certainly the team that can put an end to an offensive hot streak. The Bears have allowed just 4.0 yppl in their first two games and Dallas was held to just 5.3 yppl by Miami last week and only scored 37 points due to being +5 in turnover margin. Chicago’s offense has been horrible so far, averaging just 3.6 yppl, but quarterback Rex Grossman has a habit of following a bad game with a good game and I certainly don’t expect him to average 3.6 yards per pass play all season long (his career average is 5.9 yppp). Dallas has been below average defensively so far, allowing 6.0 yppl to the Giants and Dolphins, so the Bears certainly have a chance of breaking out of their offensive slump. My ratings only favor Chicago by ½ a point, but the situation against Dallas is strong enough for me to side with the Bears and this game also applies to a 55-17-2 UNDER angle. My ratings project 43 total points and the total opened at 43 points and has come down. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the UNDER a Best Bet, but I will consider UNDER 41 points or higher a Strong Opinion (2-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher) and I will also consider Chicago a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Tennessee 24 NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) 23
05:30 PM Pacific, 24-Sep-07
The Saints have looked horrible so far this season, getting blown out by an average score of 12-36 by the Colts and Buccaneers. New Orleans isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the first two weeks, but a defense that’s allowed 11.5 yards per pass play is certainly a problem. Vince Young has not shown that he can beat a team through the air consistently, but he should have success when he needs to throw the ball in this game. The Titans are averaging 213 yards at 5.2 ypr, so they may not take full advantage of the Saints generous secondary. The most puzzling part of the Saints’ failure has been the play of Drew Brees, who was great last season and very good in the preseason but has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in the first 2 games. I expect Brees to return to being a good quarterback and my ratings do favor the Saints by 3 ½ points in this game, but Tennessee applies to a solid 52-20-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Titans have covered 9 consecutive times as an underdog, including a win over Jacksonville and a 2 point loss to the Colts last week. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more and I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.



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[MicroBob]

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new betting method - fade dr. bob after the public moves his lines? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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This is not a bad method at all. You could do much worse. In all seriousness.

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Theory being that so many squares will jump in late and take Dr. Bob's pick no matter what the line is and move it so much that the other side ends up potentially having value?

[MyTurn2Raise]

yep...that's the theory

even a sharp hitting 57% or whatever

there is no value on his side once the line moves 1-1.5 points (yes...that amount of change will make up the 7%)

if a line moves 2.5 just on a sharps pick, there is a very good chance of value being the other way


Ideally, the best method would be to get the middles

that's what I did last year when ace-ace was moving NFL lines so much early in the year

it's tougher without Pinny access this year

also, tough to get on Dr Bob as the lines move like crazy

just watch them on sbrlines or pinny dynamic Thursday morning...it's unreal

[iggymcfly]

Wow, that's weird. I came up with 3 NFL sides on my own this week (Texans, Bears, and Titans) and Dr. Bob was on every single one of them. Maybe his trends are just basically fading the public and I used shorthand to get to them.