TPJK on 3 flush board, villain Stop-n-go's

[ninjabumpd]

edit: only 14 hands on villain, is 52/42/1.2 FWIW

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, hero checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3.5SB, 3 players)
hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, hero calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 9.75BB

[nickg1532]

i think this is fine.

[Oink]

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i think this is fine.

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[Kvacke]

I think I would bet out 3way when the pot isnt raised in fear of it get checked round, but again villian looks laggy so why wouldnt he try to pick it up, If Im sure he will bet the flop this seems fine.

[Misja]

I would fold the river. Seems to me that villain has either a flush or a better T like 95% of the time. I don't agree that villain looks that laggy with an AF of only 1.2 over 14 hands.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the river. Seems to me that villain has either a flush or a better T like 95% of the time. I don't agree that villain looks that laggy with an AF of only 1.2 over 14 hands.

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Villain has a worse T or just cheese often enough to call. Folding river is extremely horrible.

14 hands is nothing so the AF number is useless. That said, if it was over a reasonable sample then a vpip/AF combo of 52/1.2 implies that villain is pretty aggro postflop. You cannot use the AF number to estimate villains aggresiveness without looking at his vpip.

[bobhalford]

The stat read is pretty much useless. Here you have to call down because you don't know anything about this player. But in general if I hit trips on the turn I'm not folding the river for one bet.

On the flop, I would lead out. You may have the best hand, and offering your opponents a free card (or expecting them to bet a draw or worse made hand) may turn a winning hand into a loser. With 3 opponents, I could see attempting a check-raise. But versus two players, neither of whom may have anything even worth calling with, you can't expect anyone to bet. There are only two other T's in the deck and few hands with a 6 or 4 limp preflop. So you don't expect anyone to bet a pair. The only club draws that bet are jacks thru aces, and that's not even guaranteed. Essentially, by attempting to check-raise this flop, you are hoping that between your two opponents, one or both have a jack or better club draw, one of the remaining two T's (with a worse kicker), or a 6 or 4. I think that's a bit too much to ask for.

Also, in the event that you check, MP bets and button raises, you will have a difficult decision because you could wind up folding the best hand. Whereas if you bet, MP calls, and button raises, you can pay one more bet to try and dodge a club or improve your hand.

On the turn, if I had had a few drinks, I might 3-bet. But this is a bad play because certainly villain appears to have flopped a flush. He just called your flop raise so he could pop you on the turn. But there is enough of a chance that he also holds a Ten (with hopefully a worse kicker) to call even a club river. He could play both a flush and T9 this way. So I think that's a nice play on the turn.

On the river, it certainly looks bad when villain decides to bet. He probably flopped a flush. But without a read you should call and hope to see T8.

[nickg1532]

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I think I would bet out 3way when the pot isnt raised in fear of it get checked round, but again villian looks laggy so why wouldnt he try to pick it up, If Im sure he will bet the flop this seems fine.

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yeah, if there was a fear of it checking through i would bet. however, even w/ our limited read of villain, it seems like he's the type to bet this flop often. in fact, in general i think you can count on flops not getting checked through, at least in the games in play in. so i prefer c/r here