NL50: Turn decision - How I can extract more.

[ranka]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Reads:
CO: 23/8/4.9 -> 243 hands

UTG+1 ($31.95)
MP1 ($49.50)
Hero ($78.30)
CO ($48.75)
Button ($50.20)
SB ($12.80)
BB ($150.35)
UTG ($50.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, CO calls $5, SB folds, BB folds.
<font color="green">Ideal CBET flop - no flush/straight draw and one high card. Because of that I made smaller cbet.</font>

Turn: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?
<font color="green">Hero bets or check-raises?</font>

[AllTheCheese]

Man, this is an awkward spot. Your hand isn't as great as you might think it is. It's enough to go broke with, obv, but I'm not surprised if we're beat here. I bet $10 here and call a shove. If he calls, I halfpot river.

[ship_it_trebek]

Just bc he flats the flop doesn't mean we're probably beat here. This can be a large range of PPs planning to steal the pot away on the turn if checked to. I think he's most likely going to bet on the turn, making a CR very doable but if you CR, you are basically announcing you have a J. If you lead again you might fold out hands like 88-TT that he called with on the flop.

[AllTheCheese]

imo, it's pretty unlikely he called 88-TT on the flop with two players to act behind him and a preflop raiser who just bet into three players. It's especially unlikely for him to be floating because really, what card, besides the board-pairing Jack can he bluff on?

[Chargers In 07]

with an af of 4.9 I'm check/raising.

[Eggpie]

[ QUOTE ]
with an af of 4.9 I'm check/raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree

[AllTheCheese]

If you really believe he's floating, you should c/c and c/r river. His calling range for c/r turn has us beat.

Board: Jc Jd 2h 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.623% 38.47% 13.15% 474 162.00 { 77, 22, AJs, KJs, JTs, AJo, KJo }
Hand 1: 48.377% 35.23% 13.15% 434 162.00 { AJs }

[RapidEvolution]

I'd c/c turn here. Anything we beat is folding to a c/r, IMO, but if we c/c, we're repping an overpair that he may try to push us off of on the river. Just my .02.

[ship_it_trebek]

Yeah I forgot there were 2 other ppl in the pot. CR is best in that case.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
If you really believe he's floating, you should c/c and c/r river. His calling range for c/r turn has us beat.


[/ QUOTE ]I think c/c and lead river is much better than c/r river because he's going to check behind everything that doesn't have us beat and bet Jacks or better and if we bet he's not folding Jacks or better.