#11
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
hedgie,
I almost included that link in my post too. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#12
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. [/ QUOTE ] All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ [/ QUOTE ] OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller? |
#13
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ [/ QUOTE ] OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller? [/ QUOTE ] Without actually looking at the data this is probably one of the worst teasers you can possibly make. If you have a +12 team or w/e, teasing up to 18 is an awful idea, you should be trying to either a.) Find a good price on +10.5 + or b.) Find derivative bets on that team such as 1H +7.5, other team under points, etc. |
#14
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. [/ QUOTE ] All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ [/ QUOTE ] OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller? [/ QUOTE ] Page 131 is postseason. You want regular season. Look at Page 147, Regular Season Overall Margins of Victory. 3: 16.11% 7: 9.77% 10: 6.45% 6: 5.66% 14: 4.39% If you want to see it graphically, look at page 82, overall margin of victory for regular season (Figure 5.1) |
#15
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
Uh, just so you guys know, I would NOT be using the numbers Performify gave as true push %s for those spreads.
It looks like for instance the 3 is counting 3 on both sides, and doesn't selectively look at games lined around 3. Take it for what it is. |
#16
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Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
Correct, Ganchow's Push Frequencies post linked above are the push numbers.
The numbers I gave above are pure margin of victory for the NFL, which is what we were talking about here ("bell curve of final score margin of victory") |
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