Can't figure it out myself

[MadeYaLook]

To start with I think that this question was asked before and I guess it was answered. But I can't find anything with the search function (I may not know after which keywords I have to look). The question falls into the category of basic understanding of the application of probability so it shouldn't be too hard to find one who could help me.

In an old SSH-discussion there was an example about the nut flush draw with 35% pot equity. So far I understand the concept of equity and how to derive that number. I also figured out that you should bet or raise for value and try not to push out opponents as long as your equity is bigger than your share of the pot (if you have 3 opponents you contribute 25% to the pot but own 35% of it). Then on the turn you have to look again if you get the odds to call a bet etc. And also on the turn you have lower equity with only one card to come (would be 19.5% so with 3 opponents in the game raising for value isn't an option). But then I got a problem with basic understanding, why you can apply this this in Poker. It's just the logic behind it I have a problem with. If you have a flush draw and you get at least pot odds of 4.1 to break even you call. If you get a equity edge you should try to make the pot as big as possible without reducing the number of opponents. Then on the turn if you miss your draw you evaluate again if you have to necessary pot odds of 4.1 to call a bet.

Now the thing I'm missing here is that you use the 35% equity on the flop which is a number derived from including the chance of hitting on the flop or turn. So this number is the part of the pot you own when going to the showdown. But how can I use this number and increase the pot for value if I may not go to the river. Sometimes I have to fold on the turn which would compromise my previous calculation on the flop with 35% equity and making it wrong. Something else I didn't find out yet: what is the use of working with the odds for 2 cards to come instead of the odds for 1 card to come. Because when using that category you would have to estimate the turn bet making it more inaccurate. Maybe the two topics are linked and misunderstanding one is the cause of misunderstanding the other. I think it's just a whole in my understanding of probability.

[f97tosc]

" I also figured out that you should bet or raise for value and try not to push out opponents as long as your equity is bigger than your share of the pot (if you have 3 opponents you contribute 25% to the pot but own 35% of it)."

This is not entirely true. It is true that under the conditions you write, a bet that everyone calls has positive expectation. That doesn't necessarily mean that you shouldn't try to knock people out - knocking people out may have even higher expectation in some situations.

But I don't think this point changes your question. I think your question is how you can use the chance of making it on the turn or the river if you may not call on the turn.

The answer is basically that only strong draws like flush draws merit value bet/raises on the flop. For these draws it will almost always be worthwhile to call one or two bets on the turn as well. I think you will find that whenever it is worthwhile to raise draws for value on the flop, it is also worth calling on the turn (assuming that you miss).

[MadeYaLook]

I understand your first point but somehow I didn't implented it in my post. Maybe because I'm not so far in the book to fully grasp these other options how to play a hand. I guess that this will happen step by step. But thanks for correcting me I was not very accurate in expression.

Concerning the use of pot equity in this example: so basicly you're saying that it may not be logical to use it that way, but there are none or only very few examples in which you can't play it any further than to the turn - so it justifies assuming the pot equity (the expectation to the river)? English is not my mother-tongue I just want to formulate it in another way. But why don't you use then the 2 cards to come odds instead of the 1 card to come odds?