A few exceptionally high EV poker futures bets

Daliman · #1 06-21-2006, 01:11 AM

Now, the first one has been discussed here, but the second one is mind-blowingly high EV, in that almost every year, including the last 2 massive field years, at least one player wins 2 events.

Get it quick b4 they change the lines...

Risk to win
Min. risk per bet is $5.00
Max. risk per bet is $750.00
Remove this line from my bet
Male -1500
Poker 2006 World Series of Poker -- What will be the sex of the 2006 World Series of Poker Main Event Winner? - Moneyline
Jul 28/06@12:00p All wagers have action. No refunds

Risk to win
Min. risk per bet is $5.00
Max. risk per bet is $50.00
Remove this line from my bet
Yes 40/1
Poker Will any player win more than 1 bracelet at the 2006 World Series of Poker? - Moneyline

Oh crud, sorry, this is Bodog.

Dudd · #2 06-21-2006, 01:52 AM

Well, I'm in on the second bet. Looking through wikipedia at the list of multiple winners, and it's absurd that this is anywhere close to 40/1. Here's hoping it doesn't get ruled as a mistake and no action.

Wikipedia list of multiple winners

Bishop22 · #3 06-21-2006, 02:05 AM

A thousand thank yous for the second one (already had a max bet on the first). No money in Neteller because of max deposits at Pinnacle, Bowmans and Stars reload this week. My hands were literally shaking going through my wallet to get my debit card. This is like, at the absolute least, $1500 in ev. I really hope they don't cancel it and there is an excellent chance of this getting taken down real soon. I am have been a sharp prop player on Bodog for a couple years and sometimes they make a horrible line like this they have it down like 10 mintues after I bet it. Your in for 10% of my max bet.

Mr.JR · #4 06-21-2006, 02:11 AM

Thank you for the 2nd pick. The bodog odds on poker events are crazy not to bet on. Before I posted here,They had the WPT Mandalay Bay field bet at 5/1, before it got moved down to 5/4.

Daliman · #5 06-21-2006, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your in for 10% of my max bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Anyone else this appreciative?

YW all. I have a few friends I mentioned these to and half of them were "Meh".

Bishop22 · #6 06-21-2006, 02:23 AM

Seem like there is value on Hellmuth and Arieh getting bracelets at 20-1. Hellmuth has scored 6 years out his 17 year career. Even if he has slipped in the past few years, still think it is somewhere between 9 and 12-1. I have a feeling because he slipped behind Chan and Doyle in total bracelets he may be more motivated than ever. No idea how long Arieh has played but he seems to be on top of his game, two years with bracelets including last year.

pokergrader · #7 06-21-2006, 02:31 AM

In for max bet on 2nd. Thanks for the heads up.

Mr.JR · #8 06-21-2006, 02:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seem like there is value on Hellmuth and Arieh getting bracelets at 20-1. Hellmuth has scored 6 years out his 17 year career. Even if he has slipped in the past few years, still think it is somewhere between 9 and 12-1. I have a feeling because he slipped behind Chan and Doyle in total bracelets he may be more motivated than ever. No idea how long Arieh has played but he seems to be on top of his game, two years with bracelets including last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet because I don't see either one of these players playing most of the events, and I personally think those two could only make it deep in a PLO or NL or PL Hold'em event (possibly limit for Phil). I want a player who is good in events in the smaller fields like O/8, Seven Card Stud, Stud8, 2-7 NL, and the $50,000 HORSE event. But if you had to chose one, I like Hellmuth more than Arieh.

Bishop22 · #9 06-21-2006, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seem like there is value on Hellmuth and Arieh getting bracelets at 20-1. Hellmuth has scored 6 years out his 17 year career. Even if he has slipped in the past few years, still think it is somewhere between 9 and 12-1. I have a feeling because he slipped behind Chan and Doyle in total bracelets he may be more motivated than ever. No idea how long Arieh has played but he seems to be on top of his game, two years with bracelets including last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet because I don't see either one of these players playing most of the events, and I personally think those two could only make it deep in a PLO or NL or PL Hold'em event (possibly limit for Phil). I want a player who is good in events in the smaller fields like O/8, Seven Card Stud, Stud8, 2-7 NL, and the $50,000 HORSE event. But if you had to chose one, I like Hellmuth more than Arieh.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking: can you really see Arieh and Hellmuth going for 20 years without a bracelet, just seemed unlikely for either one.

Will someone take action on whether or not this bet will get cancelled I would really like to hedge [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ThaHero · #10 06-21-2006, 02:53 AM

Well that first one is pretty nice but the second one is a shocker! 40/1 when there's been multiple winners for like the past 5 or 6 years? What do they know that we don't?