Odds of AA vs KK confrontation?

[BowlMeOne]

We had discussion in another thread about what are the odds of there being an AA vs KK confrontation on any given hand in a 10 person table? Maybe some of the math gurus can chime in. With my poor math skills, and rounding things off...I came up with about 1 in 5000.

[valence]

holding KK, there is about a 3.4% chance you will run into AA

[Prodigy54321]

that's how my only pokerstars OOTM happened...I bubbled with KK vs AA.. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

rigged

[pineapple888]

1/221 chance of KK
1/221 chance of AA
10 players

rough estimate: (10/221)*(9/221) = about 1 in 500 hands.

if you already have KK, rough estimate is 9/221 = 4% that a villain has AA.

Exact calculations are more complicated but this is close enough.

[wpr101]

I think it is either 1 in 21 or 22.

[Snarf]

Harrington puts it at around 3% - top of my head

[BowlMeOne]

Yea, actually 1 in 500 sounds more like it. I was going with 1 in 221 for the first guy, then 1 in 204 for the 2nd guy..then dividing the 2nd guys chances by 9 for the 9 remaning players. Problem was I needed to alot for 10 chances for the first guy to pick up AA.

So I think what we have would be (221/10)*(204/9) = 499.46

Still not exact...but definatley a solid estimate.

thx guys

[wiggs73]

Weeeeeee who fkin cares? Why is this in STTF? Why not google it, or search the math / probability forum, or something?

[BowlMeOne]

Why take the time to reply? Thanks for chiming in thou, you seem like a very sociable, friendly person.

[igotBlackJak]

in practice it seems less often than 3%... maybe i'm running good this year.. next year it may seem that 3% is not near high enough.

this thread bores me.