QQ/diamond flop/second nut draw; fold or call?

[AJackson]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($135.80)
CO ($73.30)
Button ($97.50)
SB ($19)
BB ($116.95)
UTG ($201.10)
UTG+1 ($75.80)
Hero ($88.75)
MP2 ($92.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $5</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $5, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, Button calls $5, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $4.

Flop: ($21.50) K, 9, T [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $20</font>, MP3 calls $20, [color=#CC3333]Button raises to $92.5</font>, UTG+1 folds

No real reads on my opponents. They've not done anything to make me think thier overly aggressive or stupid.

I hate folding this hand, but I have to assume I'm behind. AK with a diamond, made flush, made staight, set. I'd have to be hoping for an ace rag diamond draw. Heads up it's not a good call with another player left to act it's even worse. Easy fold, right?

This hand has been bothering me, wanted to see what others thought.

[U2ForNow]

Does seem like a good fold. I think I would have bet a little more PF.

[josh_x]

I think you gotta call getting ~2:1 by my count.


31,680 games 0.010 secs 3,168,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 9d Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.8573 % 42.76% 01.10% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 56.1427 % 55.04% 01.10% { TT-99, AKs, KTs, QJs, 8d7d, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, QJo }



This range inlcudes sets (didnt inlcude KK), AKs, all AKo with a diamond, half without. QJs and QJo. 78s for a flush. KTs for two pair. AJ with Ace of diamonds, and AQ with ace of diamonds.

Unless i've miscounted the pot or forgot some hands it's a pretty clear call and hope. The guy behind makes things tougher, but i still think it's probably a call.

A lot of the hands that have you in trouble would raise that flop in the first place (sets + straights, no?), so i think his range is sufficiently weak that the chance of him overcalling doesn't make it a fold.

[AJackson]

I agree if I could put him on that wide a range of hands which if this was 6 max I might, but full ring-especially Stars full ring where the players are mostly nits-I just can't go with that wide a range.

[josh_x]

Woops didn't realise it was full ring.

I still like a call:


Board: Kd 9d Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6700 % 32.94% 00.73% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 66.3300 % 65.60% 00.73% { TT-99, AdJd, Ad9d, QJs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs }

This range is sets (not KK), Straights (i take he probably folds QJo pf) AK with Ad, and a couple of flushes. This is the absolute worst case scenario. If you really think that he is never semi bluffing, never has KAo, or whatever random hand, then a fold is ok. Also the guy behind is stripped of a lot of the good hands he can have in his range by the pusher showing so much strength in pushing.

[U2ForNow]

Josh_x makes a good point, but I still would not call. I would chalk it up as a PF error and look for a better opportunity. IMHO.