NL25 KK

[Maunzekater]

If the average 25NLer decides to 4bet with JJ,QQ,AK he pushes right away, IMHO.

[monkeymaps]

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EVERYONE

What hand could we possibly have which would 4bet then check this flop?

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I know our hand is face up here (though i would prob 4bet QQ agianst a guy with these stats). His range is alot biger than just Ax and his stats imply he will prob push with some hands that we beat if we check. Of corse he may also call our push with worse hands or fold QQ JJ if we push. Think this is kinda a weird agrument since obv the money is going in here regardless. maybe someone who enjoys math more than me can figure out which is more ev checking and getting worse hands to push and or shoving and sometimes getting a call from worse hands and getting called by better hands etc.

[nebben]

He might push JJ/QQ if you check to him, he might not. If he bets, and you call, the end effect is the same as an open push. The difference, to me, is that he rarely calls with JJ/QQ here. So if he has you beat, it doesnt matter because you were pushing anyways, so calling is the same. If he doesn't have you beat and pushes, you were calling anyways, but he would push with more than he would call with, so youre in better shape. If he checks, you can push the turn and he will still call with a wider range than he would have on the flop.

I don't understand how, given that you are committed, a check can be worse than a raise, because it makes you better off in every sense seemingly.

[stillnaive]

That's easy. If you use my calculations of 70/30 Ax vs. beat hands, calling his push is $.33+EV. However, if you add in a 10% FE that you won't have if he shoves, the initial shove is +$3.13 EV

I'll post the math if you're interested.

[stillnaive]

Any FE adds EV to the initial shove, by the way. If you think there's no FE, than the shove is still the right call because you're not folding to his shove, so what's the difference?

This is the easiest shove in history.

Also, the ONLY WAY it's more profitable to check is if his FE is 20% on the flop push, but he's got a 90% likelihood of Ax. Which, to me, is absurd.

[stillnaive]

The math for the curious:

<font color="red">Assuming 70% chance of AA, AJs+, AJo+ = 6.590% equity</font>
<font color="blue">Assuming 30% chance of JJ-QQ = 89.394% equity</font>
Folding equity of 10%

EV=.9*{.70*[<font color="red">0.89*(28.35+22.85)-0.11*(22.85)</font>]+.30*[<font color="blue">0.0659*(28.35+22.85)-0.9341*(22.85)</font>]}+.1*{28.35}
EV=.9*(0.3372765)+.1*(28.35)
EV=3.13

[Phildo]

Since everything he folds we have crushed anyway I don't see how the fold equity we have improves anything.

[traz]

This thread is getting way too much attention. What we do is largely irrelevant, stacks are going in the middle like 99% of the time.

If you shove he'll call worse, if you check he might shove in which case you call, if he checks behind then you shove the turn. It really doesn't matter.

I'm not even sure why fold equity is being talked about. You have none.

[stillnaive]

Because we have FE 0% of the time we check, and I think if he can lay ANYTHING down, he would probably lay down Ax (which, given his stats, it's not impossible he has) if we bet first.

[stillnaive]

I'm only making the FE argument because people are suggesting he won't call with JJ-QQ. I think that he will, personally, and if he doesn't, I'm not convinced that's a bad thing because if he lays down JJ-QQ in this situation, he's also likely to lay down AT+, which is also in his range.



Longest run-on sentence in history!