WTF is going on here? (warning: stats) - Page 3

Jim C · #21 01-27-2006, 01:07 AM

OK, this is very helpful to me. I do believe I tend a bit toward "autobetter" in some of these situations.

Now, how can I figure out in which situations I may be doing this? Can we further narrow down which hands I should post/study/etc.?

Are you simply check/folding overcards in headsup pots when your opponent has shown no aggression? Here is a hand that is "typical" of how I play it:

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (4 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.00 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.00 BB.
Results in white below:
BB has Ks 9h (a pair of nines.)
Hero has Qs Ah (high card ace.)
BB wins 6.80 BB.


It's headsup. I probably have the best hand, and he is likely drawing. My river check could easily induce a bluff.

Now, on the other hand, the board is coordinated and I can see that this board texture may indicate check/fold on the turn.

Please comment.

Jim

bxpeter · #22 01-27-2006, 01:22 AM

Whoa, explain why you would ever call this river? Something is definitely wrong here.

Jim C · #23 01-27-2006, 01:31 AM

Thanks again to all of you for taking the time to respond to me.

[ QUOTE ]
The went to showdown and won money at showdown numbers tells me you don't have a good read on your opponents AND/OR they do have a good read on you. As the previous poster said, you may be too predictable. As for having a read on your opponenst answer these. Do you feel like you normally have a good read on your opponents aggression? Betting patterns? Recognizing betting patterns is a pretty important aspect of winning at short tables IMO. How many tables do you play? You should seriously consider cutting back to one table and concentrate on getting good reads on your opponents until you get back to the winning ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of these hands I've been 3 tabling. I agree that playing fewer tables is something I should have been doing, and I will cut back to 1 table again immediately.

I actually feel I have a good read on my opponent's aggression. I feel that I know when they are playing draws aggressively and when they have a hand. I don't fail to notice that a certain passive player will only c/r the turn if he can beat 2 pair, or whatever. For the most part, and especially at 10/20-6, I feel this opponent is the exception. More commonly they are showing inappropriate aggression, not passivity. I keep short notes on the players if they behave out of line with a "stat stereotype".

Playing fewer tables is excellent advice. I think I've been so intently trying to "play through it" that I haven't done this soon enough.

[ QUOTE ]
if you are doing it all too predictibly and not noticing when your opponents are being too predictable then, the good alert players will pick you apart and you will lose a lot of bets by not taking advantage of your opponents bad predictable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play very straight forwardly. If you were in my game, you would see predictable play. I will vary my play against another TAG, but not against the normal player.

Where are these good players? This is just not my experience on the Party 5/10 or 10/20. Sure there are good players there, but they are the rare exception. Most of these people don't even understand that their 2 pair just got counterfeit when the board paired. These people can barely interpret their own hand value, it seems to me.

I think you are making a great point, and I am sure that predictability becomes more damaging as one moves up and encounters a greater percentage of better players.

If I look at pokertracker, I am simply not losing much money to other TAGs. When I look at the PT tab showing net wins by opponent, I win from "fish" and "dice" LP-P, LA-P, and lose mostly to the "taz" LAGs. Almost all of the TAG players are clustered around the center, +/- a few bucks. Again, there is the exception, and there are a couple of TAGs I have lost to (there are also a couple who have been very profitable for me).

I sincerely want to find where I need improvement. I am ernest in this exchange and I am trying very hard not to resist these comments or be defensive in any way. Please understand that.

However, I just can't grok that these people are *outplaying* me based on my predictability. These are people who will cap the flop with a gutshot and two undercards. Am I too disrespectful of these LAGs?

Here is something I've been thinking about quite a lot. One aspect of predictability is playing premium hands. If my UTG raise means KQs, ATs+, AJ+ and everyone knows this, they can take their 84o and charge me the maximum when they outflop me and lose the minimum when they don't. They betting structure allows them to do this profitably, because they are putting 1BB in preflop, but stand to win 3 or 4BB from me postflop if I hit and they hit harder. Now, that isn't supposed to happen often enough for them to have a profitable play, but if I pay off too aggressively when behind, it could. I mean, nothing is much more than a 4:1 dog preflop.

On the other hand, I want maximum value for my hands. The "taz" will c/r the flop with A9, after calling my AK raise and an A flops. I am willing to cap the flop against these nutballs with my TPTK.

Is this where I need to look? I will continue to fire with an AK that misses against 1 opponent, and I am willing to put some serious money behind an AK that hits. Is this what helpmeout is saying about my aggression being out of whack? Am I too aggressive postflop with 1 pair type hands?

Again, I am trying to narrow down where to look so that I can analyze/post/discuss/get coached on my problem hands.

Thanks again,

Jim

Jim C · #24 01-27-2006, 01:35 AM

OK. I agree. Let me look through a few more of these hands and see what I come up with.

I guess I fear being bluffed. Bluffing too often seems so rampant in these games. I think that is a major issue for me, overweighting the possibility that they are bluffing.

What about the turn? Do you fire again here?

Jim

helpmeout · #25 01-27-2006, 01:48 AM

yeah thats pretty bad I'd check/fold the turn against most you got an overcard and a gutshot in a tiny pot your Q outs are tainted.

That river call is really bad.

What makes you think you have the best hand? why is he calling that flop with anything other than a pair or a ten?

Getting a big Ace HU doesnt mean you are going to be good all the time, these hands make the most money when you both flop pairs. When you are out of position and he calls the flop most times its best to just check/fold depending on the board and opponent.

dangerfish · #26 01-27-2006, 01:52 AM

Jim,

You are running bad. Just by reading your post its obvious you put a lot of work into your game and are cleary an intelligent person. Ill stake you if you want! Thats how sure I am that you will bounce back. You cannot write posts like you have and be a long term loser at the 5 game unless you have some mental issue I dont know about. Im not saying you can't improve but I wouldnt panic just yet. From what I did read about your game I would focus on your turn play- which I believe is the hardest street sh.

Good luck

sweetjazz · #27 01-27-2006, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is very helpful to me. I do believe I tend a bit toward "autobetter" in some of these situations.

Now, how can I figure out in which situations I may be doing this? Can we further narrow down which hands I should post/study/etc.?

Are you simply check/folding overcards in headsup pots when your opponent has shown no aggression? Here is a hand that is "typical" of how I play it:

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (4 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.00 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.00 BB.
Results in white below:
BB has Ks 9h (a pair of nines.)
Hero has Qs Ah (high card ace.)
BB wins 6.80 BB.


It's headsup. I probably have the best hand, and he is likely drawing. My river check could easily induce a bluff.

Now, on the other hand, the board is coordinated and I can see that this board texture may indicate check/fold on the turn.

Please comment.

Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Jim,

Preflop and flop are played well. Turn is close between bet/calling and check/calling. If the BB peels with a lot of weak hands on the flop, I like betting. If not, I think check/calling is good. You have a lot of outs (though they are not all clean, they are pretty good in a HU blind battle situation) and you may be ahead.

But you must check/fold this river. The main draw, the OESD, just got there and there are four cards in the playing zone that could have paired your opponent. Try listing the hands you can beat and then determine how many of them would be calling to the river.

I think your river call on this board has an EV of -0.5 BB or worse. It would be closer if the river were another 4 or a 2 instead of the 7, though I think folding is still probably better than bluffing against most opponents. If the BB is a frequent bluffer, then you can consider calling the river if it were a 4 or 2.

It sounds like you are mostly running bad, but could also use work on your game. Good luck at the tables.

roy_miami · #28 01-27-2006, 02:42 AM

If you post more hands you should put them in a new thread. This is a pretty interesting hand (to me anyway).

The interesting street is the turn. I can't really think of too many hands villain will fold (or hands you want him to fold like weaker aces) after calling that flop. All the bet on the turn will do is give you a headache if he raises.

As for the river, by betting the turn and checking the river you gave him the green light to value bet his crap. Had you check-called the turn chances are he will check behind on this river. You also have the option to bet out at the scare card river or checkraise if he does bet.