Set faces big river raise

[Jim C]

Not betting/raising the flop was a mistake, clearly. With the A on the board there is probably no reason to slowplay. My thinking at the time was to let him hang himself since he is quite aggressive. I expected him to raise the turn and then I could scoot my money in. When he just calls. I started thinking he had something but not much like KK or a weak suited A, so I bet the river for value.

My question is the villian's whacky all-in raise on the river. I felt this opponent could go nuts with 2 pair (especially AJ) or even a whiffed draw, particularly since I played the flop so weakly. He's quite bad: 65/15, postflop aggression of nearly 2, goes to showdown 35%.

I can fold this river against many players, but this guy is so (bad) LAG. I felt my hand would be good more than 50% against this guy. I don't have any good analysis to back this up, and that is troubling to me, coming as I did from a limit background.

Any help on what to consider here and how to approach this decision would be very helpful. In general, I have a very tough time putting these extremely loose players on hands...

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $906.50
Hero: $506
Button: $562.86
SB: $539.15
BB: $409

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($22, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $4</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $25</font>, Button calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($80, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in $525.86</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in $394</font>.
Uncalled bets: $56.86 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: $1018

[berserk]

Wow, take flop to $30, its the most perfect flop you could hope for. River call is ok, what did he have, 9T?

[luckychewy]

what are you doing A) pf, B) otf. hate to say it but fold the river as played, this guy isn't doing this with 2 pair.

[Praetor]

preflop and the flop suck really really hard

[Hattifnatt]

Every street is missplayed IMO, not 100% sure I would be able to fold river though.

[myfutureself]

I would usually fold the flop (but not always).
I would definitely bet out or check/raise the pot on the flop.
It makes no sense to me to call the flop, effectively giving a "free" card, and then bet out on the turn when a straightening card comes. Why not just check/raise the flop?

[capone0]

You fold the flop with bottom set? Are you serious. Do you honestly put him on AA or QQ? This can't be serious. I pump it up. Probally lead, 3-bet if raised. What better flop are you expecting?

[myfutureself]

You are right, this is a typo, sorry. I meant to say I would usually BET the flop!

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
I would usually fold the flop (but not always).

[/ QUOTE ]
Weak-tight? huh [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[myfutureself]

In this case I would fold the river unless the guy was a total maniac. In my (limited) experience you will lose more money over time calling those all ins than you would by folding to bluffs. I would put him on a straight. That is why I like to bet the flop. If he called a pot size bet on the flop I would be less likely to put him on the straight. However I would like to hear other opinions on this.