crappy top two

[holdem2000]

CO is approximately 65/13, button is 11/11 after a pretty meaningless. I'm around a 35/25 in my few hands here. No other reads. Time bank was running low and I decided that he probably wouldn't just smooth call the flop with any sets (or if he does then there's a decent chance he's also a player who would play an overpair this way).

What do you think of the turn check and of the call after that?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $167.60
Hero (BB): $389.80
UTG: $200.00
MP: $261.60
CO: $312.20
BTN: $176.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $6.00</font>, BTN calls $6.00, SB folds, Hero calls $4.00

Flop: ($19) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $12.00</font>, BTN calls $12.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $36.00

Turn: ($127) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets all-in for $122.00</font>, Hero calls $122.00

Pot Size: $371.00 ($3 Rake)

[auto111032]

Nh

Curious to know results.

[DawnToDusk]

Can vill not have 44 here in this spot? I think thats in his range too. And never say never. A set is definately in his range and as you said you don't have any reads. So never discount it. Then again the BTN has has two chances to raise with his hand on the flop. I think it would be hard for him to just smooth call with an overpair with you behind him, especially twice! At least it would be for me. I might be able to with a set though... Hmmmm.... From his perspective you might be playing your hand like an overpair too. I dunno. I get the feeling that you may be looking at and overpair sometimes and maybe 33 or 44 here a lot too. I don't know what else he could have really. A2 doesn't seem like in his range nor does 78. Seems pretty tight so I don't think he is calling raises with that unless you know otherwise. Same goes for 67.

I think it comes down to him playing this as an overpair sometime and a set too. You just have to weigh which is more likely and then decide if it is profitable to call.

[kaah]

I dont like it. You are beat here to often to make this profitable imo.

[holdem2000]

44 is definitely a possibility, and was probably what I was most scared of on the turn, but again, I felt like if he was calling off $36 more on the flop with just 44, he's coming along for the ride with enough overpairs too for me to be fine getting all my chips in.

Really if even two overpairs 88+ are in his range after the turn push I can safely call him, but what worries now is that a large majority of players check behind the turn with an overpair.

I'll post results before I sign off for the night.

[holdem2000]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like it. You are beat here to often to make this profitable imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to ask what you do if the river's a blank, but on this board the closest I can get is an 8... so what do you do if the turn's the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

[holdem2000]

Whoops, my original post was meant to say that the villain was 11/11 after a pretty meaningless 26 hands... end of the sentence got left out.

[zxjaexz]

11/11? hm. everything says fold to me.

[DawnToDusk]

I check behind a lot on the turn too with my overpairs and reevaluate the river. Lets give our vill a PF range. I think any PP is reasonable if we have deduced that 44 can be in his range, and this is one way he might play 44 on the turn. Maybe some suited/unsuited broadway cards too like JTs+ and KQ+. We don't know if he 3bets AK and 99+ (or any other hands for that matter) PF yet since it is such a small sample size.

On the flop he is faced with a bet which he calls and then a C/R which he also calls. Since there are know high cards or flush draws possible I think we can take out our broadway cards. We may even want to take out our higher and medium PP too BECAUSE he has had the chance to reraise twice. He has to have some stones to not throw in a raise with his PP there and continue to slowplay. So lets not completely take it out but for the moment lets leave it out for now. Lets Stove up some equity for our hand.

Board: 5h 3c 6s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.576% 27.27% 05.30% 216 42.00 { 6c5c }
Hand 1: 67.424% 62.12% 05.30% 492 42.00 { 88-77, 44-33 }
Pretty bad situation with us in this spot if we think he only has these hands here. He probably has a little wider range so lets throw back in some of the hands he could be slowplaying.

Board: 5h 3c 6s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.343% 51.52% 07.83% 1224 186.00 { 6c5c }
Hand 1: 40.657% 32.83% 07.83% 780 186.00 { 77+, 44-33 }


Here we have even better pot equity. This would also be a case for calling but I think we will find this scenario less often.

I don't know but also throwing in 34s and 56s might be reasonable too. His stats may say otherwise but we also only have like 20 hands on him. I might even throw in 78 here too. On boards like these where if there is a chance to make 4 to a straight (without any gaps) I will call gutshots a lot if I think I someone else might overplay there one card straight to the high end a lot.

Here is the equity with a wider range:

Board: 5h 3c 6s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.611% 47.69% 07.92% 1343 223.00 { 6c5c }
Hand 1: 44.389% 36.47% 07.92% 1027 223.00 { 77+, 44-33, 87s, 7c6c, 7d6d, 7h6h, 6d5d, 5c4c, 5d4d, 4d3d, 4h3h }

Not the best but we are a slight favorite and are getting 1-to-1 on the money.

And another thing is big bets usually mean big hands. He may be bluffing here but we probably have to assign it a small percentage of the time.

[Fonkey123]

nh