|
|
#1
11-21-2007, 08:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
Villain = 23/9/2, seems like a standard TAG after 70 hands.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($125.25) UTG ($128.05) Hero ($100) CO ($74.50) Button ($121.40) SB ($142.30) Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7. Turn: ($23.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14</font>, Hero SHOVES? <font color="blue"> Ok i think his range for betting the turn here is JJ, TT, 99, 44, 66, 87, 64, T9, T7-AT, diamond draws and some str8 draws too + random bluffs/floats. I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right? 
|
|
#2
11-21-2007, 08:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
[ QUOTE ]
I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right? [/ QUOTE ] Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.
|
|
#3
11-21-2007, 08:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right? [/ QUOTE ] Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me. [/ QUOTE ] .
|
|
#4
11-21-2007, 08:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
[ QUOTE ]
Villain = 23/9/2, seems like a standard TAG after 70 hands. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($125.25) UTG ($128.05) Hero ($100) CO ($74.50) Button ($121.40) SB ($142.30) Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7. Turn: ($23.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14</font>, Hero SHOVES? <font color="blue"> Ok i think his range for betting the turn here is JJ, TT, 99, 44, 66, 87, 64, T9, T7-AT, diamond draws and some str8 draws too + random bluffs/floats. I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right? [/ QUOTE ] Pokerstove can answer a lot of your questions here. If he'll fold the rest? We'll you and your reads can answer that. /standard dick reply I'd usually just bet the turn though.
|
|
#5
11-21-2007, 08:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right? [/ QUOTE ] Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me. [/ QUOTE ] No. we win $37 when he folds, and lose $100 when he calls.
|
|
#6
11-21-2007, 08:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
Don't think so, I was talking about pots. You're talking about winnings when you lose and pots when you win.
You'll win a $37,50 pot (of which $11 is yours, so +$26,50) if he folds or lose a $201,50 pot (of which $100 is yours, so -$100) if he calls.
|
|
#8
11-21-2007, 09:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
I had a play with stove. Villain needs to fold 70% of the time for this to be a breakeven play. According to my range villain will only fold 60% of the time and we only have 10% equity when called, so this is -EV.
To make the play +EV we would need either: -smaller effective stacks, probably around $80 -Better equity when called -Or a huge read that villain floats a lot. FWIW, i actually called his turn bet. River went check, check and villain showed AKo, MHIG [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
