NCAAB Week 2 (11/12 - 11/9)

[Austiger]

I posted my predictions for the totals this morning in last week's thread. Here are my plays:

2 units:
u149-110 (NEW MEXICO STATE vrs DUKE)
o149-110 (WESTERN MICHIGAN vrs OREGON)
o117½-110 (DELAWARE STATE vrs COLUMBIA)
o140-110 (HAMPTON vrs MARYLAND)

1 unit:
u157-110 (SIENA vrs SYRACUSE)
o122-110 (YOUNGSTOWN STATE vrs UCLA)
o137-110 (GEORGIA SOUTHERN vrs FLORIDA STATE)
o125-110 (THE CITADEL vrs SOUTH CAROLINA)
u158-110 (NEW MEXICO STATE vrs DUKE)

Today was a BIG learning experience as this is the first time I have hammered the totals right when they are released. Some very interesting line movements took place which have me very encouraged. Since this is maybe the only time I will post my predictions, I'll carry it out and compare them to the line movements here. Here are the movements for all my bets:

S Carolina-
My prediction: 131
Opened at: 123.5
Got my bet in at: 125
Current line: 133.5

Maryland
My prediction: 149
Opened: 140
My bet: 140
Current line: 148

FSU:
My prediction: 144
Opened: 137
My bet: 137
Current: 142

Oregon
My prection: 161
Open: 146.5 (WTF?)
My bet: 149
Current: 156

Syracuse
My prediction: 152
Open: 152
My bet: 157
Current: 157

Columbia
Prediction: 127
Open: 115
My bet: 117.5
Current: 119.5

UCLA
Prediction: 130
Open: 122
My bet: 122
Current: 122

and then there is Duke...

My prediction: 138
Open: 142
My bet: 149
Add a unit LOL: 158
Current: 158

I am confident the Duke situation is an anomaly. Their freshman must have been extremely impressive in the first game. I didn't make too much of the score of their first game since I don't really look at games against non division I teams, and their opponent was playing their first game in Div I. (Northwestern can beat a Div II team 105-40 and it won't tell you much.) But some smart people must be on top of the change in Duke's style of play with the new personel. I still got an extra unit on 158, but I'm not too confident about the 2 units I have at 149. If they win 85-50 I will be gloating afterwards though.

Sorry to dominate this thread so much. Maybe I should just make my own thread since there aren't many other posters, but whatever. I'll keep using the weekly threads for now I guess. Hopefully if anyone is following my plays, the info. above will be somewhat educational about my process.

[jhennis]

indiana -24
loyola PK
UNC Charlotte -3.5

[Austiger]

Adding...

1 unit:
o129½-110 (ARKANSAS LR vrs LOYOLA MARYMOUNT)

Not totally confident in this one, but it is worth a unit at this point.

[Austiger]

The Duke total is up to 160 now. Jesus.

[Caldarooni]

[ QUOTE ]
The Duke total is up to 160 now. Jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone with a very respected following released over 145.

[aufan91]

I have Duke -18
Duke U147.5
Duke U160

[Austiger]

LOL How crappy is this? I went to bet on S Carolina Under 137.5 which would give me a 12 point middle (I got Over 125 earlier.) Instead I misclicked on New Mexico/E Washington Under 137.5 (the only game I didn't cap, b/c of the two new coaches.) So not only do I get my money on that game, but it was my last unit in Bookmaker and I only have money left on Bodog now and they don't have the SC game so i can't get the middle. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] FWIW I'm not counting the UNM game on my official record. Bleh.

[aufan91]

Ugh. So sick. Kinda like our game this weekend. Too bad I was there and had to witness that crap.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. So sick. Kinda like our game this weekend. Too bad I was there and had to witness that crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sucks. I will be at the Bama game. Will be much more fun, hopefully.

[Austiger]

Adding...

One unit:
Ohio State/Wis-Green Bay Under 142