Flopped straight, turn devalues

sharpie · #1 10-11-2007, 10:07 AM

Sorry for the very n00bish hand. It seems if I make a standard turn bet I'm commited? How much equity do I have when it gets all in? Is there any merit to inducing a bluff or am I overthinking this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($98.30)
UTG ($165.35)
MP ($321.40)
Button ($100)
Hero ($105.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($6) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

Turn: ($16) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero???

greggg230 · #2 10-11-2007, 01:50 PM

Keep betting. You'll likely take down the pot here. If he raises, just call him down. If he shows up with 9J, good for him.

Alobar · #3 10-11-2007, 01:51 PM

bet. Sure the board sucks cuz now hes gunna be scared of the straight, but what else you gunna do? Just hope he decides since its a blind vs blind hand that you are FOS and calls you down with TP, or decides to bluff you.

Ulkis · #4 10-11-2007, 06:22 PM

But how much equity? Late 80's?

Guruman · #5 10-11-2007, 07:32 PM

I'd say you're overthinking it. Since this is a blind battle villain's flop call is a pair a BIG chunk of the time there. I'd just bet for value.

Ulkis · #6 10-12-2007, 02:03 PM

I think OP's equity question was interesting, I played with PokerStove and think that 80-90% equity might be a reasonable estimate, but would like to hear more experienced opinions.

How does going AI affect equity as opposed to stacks being a lot bigger and less probability going AI?

Surf · #7 10-12-2007, 04:55 PM

We aren't excited to get the remaining stacks in here, since when we do we are chopping ~70-95% of the time and losing the rest, depending on the player.

A turn check is totally fine. If villain is a known fish then bet ~1/2 pot turn + river so he can call down his toppair / 2pair etc hand. However most "average" players wont pay off 2 streets of betting here unless they have a set or something, so checking to underrep your hand / induce a bluff / give a free card is a nice balance for the times when you cbet, have nothing, and c-f.

Surf

Nick C · #8 10-13-2007, 08:19 PM

I don't think a standard turn bet commits you, exactly, except that your hand seems too strong to fold.

I do think, though, that you'll generally be chopping (and occasionally losing) if all the money goes in. But you'll also get called by worse on the turn sometimes, so a bet does seem worthwhile, although checking to induce seems okay to me as well if Villain has been aggressive in the past when his opponent shows weakness.

I'm responding blind, by the way, so now I guess I'll see what others have said.

B2_eBoogaloo · #9 10-13-2007, 11:20 PM

I we really committed by putting in a PSB here?

Just curious.

Surf · #10 10-14-2007, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I we really committed by putting in a PSB here?

Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're not committed from a stack-pot ratio standpoint, but we put ourselves in a situation where our equity is probably high enough to call a raise and a river bet because of the $ in the pot, but we are an underdog (albeit slight many times) when that money goes in, so it costs us compared to keeping his range wide.

Surf