Sort of crappy river

[Gurravasa]

Bet/call, hoping to induce a bluffraise when that scarecard comes. I don't fold against laggish players for 1BB in huge pots on river and I think he'll call worse hands and bluffraise enough to bet/call instead of check/call.

[Sushiglutton]

C/f looks good to me. We beat almost nothing except perhaps 99.

[JSmith2007]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/call, hoping to induce a bluffraise when that scarecard comes. I don't fold against laggish players for 1BB in huge pots on river and I think he'll call worse hands and bluffraise enough to bet/call instead of check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he would bluff at this, calling it down. If you're betting he'd have to put you on a ten or even two pair, I wouldn't be too sure he'd think his K X would be good to a river bet.

[gehrig]

b/f zzzzzzzzzz

[NinaWilliams]

If I played it like this, I cant see anything else to do besides bet/fold. I would never cap the flop though.

[yourface]

does this look like a reasonably range for villain after he 3bets the flop?

Board: 8s Jh Tc

..........equity
Hand 0: 44.485% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 55.515% { 88+, AcJc, AsJs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AsJd, KhQs, KsQd }

AJ discounted by 1/2 due to preflop
KQ discounted by 3/4 due to preflop and flop 3bet

[yourface]

for the river,

Board: 8s Jh Tc Th Ks

if villain will call with 99,

...........equity
Hand 0: 54.348% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 45.652% { QQ+, 99, AcJc, AsJs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AsJd,KhQs, KsQd }

if not,
...........equity
Hand 0: 38.235% { QcQh }
Hand 1: 61.765% { QQ+, AcJc, AsJs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AsJd, KhQs, KsQd }

edit: forgot KQ

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
b/f zzzzzzzzzz

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you think we get bluff raised here?

Given yourface's stove we get somewhere around .5BB gained when ahead assuming he always calls worse hands and checks them behind. However he'll sometimes bluff 99 if we check, or fold if we bet, so call it ~.4BB of value. If my math is right, we only have to get bluff raised on the river less than ~3% of the time to make bet/folding bad.

[jba]

AQ too

honestly I'm shocked by that equity calc and change my answer to bet/fold

[gehrig]

sharpie nobody bluffs with a pair ever