The final truth about down swings.

[steamboatin]

I think your post is dead on but I am going to disagree with a portion of this reply.

[ QUOTE ]
Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have it exactly backwards. I think people get interested in Poker, and then learn to beat the game. Poker pretty much has to be a learn as you go game, because it is impossible to know what you don't know. You have to play some before you learn enough to ask the right questions and figure out what you need to learn. There is an old saying that Winners are losers that got angry. I believe we start playing and then if we want to win badly enough, we do what it takes to learn.

I am also certain that more downswings are caused by poor play than by normal variance. I have caught myself blaming variance and then later discovering that I was playing badly.

I thing your estimate of half the people here being losers is very close to the mark. I am certain that we have the highest percentage of winners of any group on the planet but if only 5% of players are long term winners, it would be very optimistic to think that most of us are long term winners.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Learn to fold in tight marginal situations..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not particularly useful advice. Marginal situations are marginal; i.e. close. So by definition any mistake you make in a marginal situation is not going to be that costly.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

The most common answer I see to these questions about what to do and when will it end are met too many times with "Take A Break".

[/ QUOTE ]

What people are really trying to say is "Stop tilting, you moron!", but they are too polite to use those words. "Take a break" is a suggestion that will lead to the desired result.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

I am yet to see any really good player complain about downswings.

Final word.

[klepto]

i just want to say that while reading this entire thread i went from -150BB to +20BB in about 500 hands

key to end downswings = keep playing idiot (to everyone, not OP)

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who wants to start playing poker should do their homework first. Even more rare than the royal flush is a player with no idea who starts playing and becomes a long-term winning player. Again, you need to do your homework first. You read a couple books, post and read on these forums, etc. To maximise your ability to learn and understand you must do some research first. Poker is not set up to be a trial and error game. It is easy to lose and get discouraged early on without the proper mind-set and education. Study up and know what you're getting into. Prepare yourself. They don't grab people off the streets and send them to Iraq. They train them first. Because of this training their chance to survive and be effective in times of war is increased exponentially. So, if you've trained yourself you should have an idea of what to expect. You should know that downswings happen to everyone. You should also know that over time the laws of probability will hold true (or at least close to it). If they are not you have leaks in your game that you have not identified.


[/ QUOTE ]

Many of them will also say that practice is much different than actually being there. You can read all you want about swings, but until you actually go through it, you don't really realize just how hard they can be. It's a huge psychological hurdle for most players even if they've 'read' and 'studied' about it prior. The ablility to play through those times is one of the biggest tests of a players ability, imo. It's what really weeds out the wannabes and think they are's.

I also believe it can be even harder to get used to if one plays live instead of online. Online, a bad swing that lasts for a month will run 4+ months live. 4+months of losing or breakeven play can be pretty harsh to get through. It will seem like forever. If you've never done it, it can really twist your brain the first pass though that jungle.

I do agree that study builds a great foundation, but nothing compares to experience. Especially when dealing with the reality of the swing psychologically when in the middle of it.

Don't underestimate the psychological part of the game.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Its the player that creates bad runs, not the cards... believe me.


[/ QUOTE ]

No thanks, I'm not going to believe you. Not as far as that's the only reason for downswings.

Why do you think the recommended bankroll is 3-500bbs for good winning players?

My guess is you haven't had your first bad swing yet or you'd have never made this statement in your post.

Sometimes the only thing the player does is happen to be there getting the cards. In that regard, yes, he is creating it simply by playing. But that's not necesarily a reflection of his level of skill.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
It's kind of like knowing intellectually that everyone gets their heart broken at some point in their life. This knowledge doesn't help much when the girl you love just dumped you. OK, maybe a bad analogy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it's not that bad an analogy. Ever talk to a virgin about sexual technique or sex in general even though he's 'studied' all about it? It's a joke.

[ QUOTE ]
But still, just saying "suck it up" trivializes how tough these downswings can be when you're stuck in the middle of one. I personally don't see taking a break, or looking for a little sympathy on 2+2 from those who've been through it, as a sign of weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I was learning how to deal with swings, I posted about them on here. It really helped me understand them more especially when hearing from other players who responded to those threads. It is also theraputic.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I am yet to see any really good player complain about downswings.

Final word.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many good players did it before they became good players. Once they became good, they stopped complaining because they made it past it and learned how to deal with it.

b

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
Online, a bad swing that lasts for a month will run 4+ months live

[/ QUOTE ]

For someone that 4 tables, 1 month is equivalent to 8 months of live play (4x the tables at almost 2x the speed per table)

An 8 month downswing/breakeven period would be pretty discomforting.

Thread hijack: Why do you play live as a source of income? I like to do it for social reasons sometimes, but for an extra-income stream, online play seems far superior to me, both in terms of pure profit and reduced variance per fixed unit of time (since you can crank through hands so much faster, clearly the variance per hand is similar)

I expect that you are going to say that the amount you make live is enough and that you enjoy the social nature of it rather than grinding it out solo in front of a computer.. but if not, I am curious.