Pitching Probabilities

[prohornblower]

I'm currently doing a little study, but I need the assistance of people more knowledgeable than myself here.

I'm trying to figure out what the hypothetical probabilities (I say probabilities but really looking for %)
of each starting pitcher to win a ballgame. (Or I should say, give his team a chance to win).

I'm guessing they look like this:
Ace: 66%
2: 58%
3: 50%
4: 42%
5: 34%

The range may be more like 36%-64%. 66% is pretty high and 34% seems low.

Also, what kind of deduction can we expect if they pitch on short (1 day less) rest? I guestimate that they are 10% less effective on short rest.

And finally, what increase in chance can we expect if they pitch on extended (1+ day more) rest? I guestimate that they are 8% more effective on extra rest.

I also believe there is likely no real noticeable additional increase for 2 days extra rest, as opposed to 1 day extra rest. And, my guestimates may be off, but certainly short rest is more damaging than extra rest is improving.

Thanks for the help, guys! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

If you do not have/know the real data, please by all means speculate what you think the numbers are.