NFL undefeated season prop

[mogwai316]

New props on Bodog:

Patriots regular season record, they have odds for each possible record. 11/2 on 16-0.

Patriots 19-0 +800/-1600
Colts 19-0 +1200/-2400
Colts 16-0 +1000/-2000
Dolphins 0-16 +1300/-2600

Personally not picking any of these, the lines are too far apart to really get an edge on either side. Will be interesting to see how they move, though.

[Thremp]

Fading the first two is essentially printing money.

[mogwai316]

Kinda strange that the Colts no line is worse than the Pats no line. I see your point, given that you're guaranteed to win one of the two, and have a great chance of winning both.

max bets are 100, so:

NE - risk 100 to win 6.25
IND - risk 100 to win 4.17

If we give NE a 6% chance of going 19-0 and IND a 2% chance of going 19-0, then we have:
neither go 19-0 -- win 10.42 (92%)
NE goes 19-0 -- lose 95.83 (6%)
IND goes 19-0 -- lose 93.75 (2%)

Total expectation = win 1.96

So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[insanity31]

the max bet is to win $100 on the "no"

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

[mogwai316]

Good points, I didn't realize it was a max win of $100 not a max risk of $100 (noob mistake, I'm here to learn about this stuff). And since they play each other in a few weeks, at least half the money will be freed up then. Now I'm wishing I had more bankroll available for this; gonna dump most of my Bodog balance into it though. Thanks guys.

[Thremp]

Mogawi,

I think 6% is very high. Both teams will clinch early if undefeated and rest starters increasing likelihood of a defeat. In addition the colts line looks horribly wrong considering they have a very significant chance of going through NE again in the playoffs.

Going 19-0 is going to be incredibly tough and I think your estimates are fairly high.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Mogawi,

I think 6% is very high.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very easy to make a case that 6% is too low.

These are readily available lines:

10/21 @ Miami -16.5
11/4 @ Indi -3
11/18 @ Buffalo -14
12/3 @ Balt -7 (???)
12/9 PITT -10
12/29 @ NYG -7

Other games (a.k.a. blowout city):
Sun 10/28/07 Washington 3 2
Sun 11/25/07 Philadelphia 2 3
Sun 12/16/07 NY Jets 1 5
Sun 12/23/07 Miami 0 6

Another available line:

Superbowl

NFC +10
AFC -10

Worst case scenario for the two home playoff games would be -10 and -6.

All I am saying is a case can definitely be made...

I wouldn't make that bet at -1600.

[Central Limit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think New England will go undefeated. I've never seen a team this good or a league this bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing, but Steve Young mentioned something I hadn't considered.

He pointed out that their division is so weak, they'll probably clinch with a month left to play. If they wrap up home-field advantage early as well, and have nothing to play for those last few games, it's unrealistic to expect their best efforts in those games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Luckily, the fact that I am betting them weekly instead of all at once in a prop bet takes care of that problem.

Incidentally, I don't think I'll be able to bet the Pats this week. My bookie isn't offering a money line on them and I don't like betting against heavy (greater than 9 point) home dogs. Sigh.

[Central Limit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you 100% sure of the rules on this? In my experience, season long prop bets are not paid until the end of the season no matter when the proposition gets decided. Not saying that this is definitely the case at your book, but it you haven't made absolutely sure, you should.