I'm bored

[Bigka79]

[ QUOTE ]
For those who think bet-calling is right, let's try get some hand ranges and raising frequencies sorted out.

1) What do you think the hand range is preflop?
2) What is it reduced to when he calls the turn?
3) What hands do you think he's willing to raise on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that once we whittle down this range we can make an argument for c/c on the river. its obvious he might be calling with a FD, trips or even a boat. i thought when reading through this hand out ace is only good on the river a small amount of the time.

but i think we get more value by c/c.....

hmmm....maybe not now that i think about it because he will not bet worse hands that he will call with. yeah im changing my input and i think this river in general b/f is the best line. he will call with weaker hands, call with a lot of hands that beat us and raise only hands that we are WB.

yeah i believe b/f is the correct line despite my previous argument for c/c because our opponent is loose and passive

[nerdking]

I'm backing Aaron on this one and not because his brain is bigger than mine.

While we do have top pair, villain's hand range, coupled with his aggression facter, coupled with the pot size and the board coordination make for a fold here. It's not an easy fold, though.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
Stakes are $1/2 6-max and my read was weakly supported by some PT numbers: 47/7/0.78 after 55 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

How really passive is he? Sure his PFR of 7 playing 6max is redonkulous as is his 47 VPIP.

But his .78 AF is NOT THAT passive. He is playing 65-75% more hands than what we consider "optimal" at 6 max. This means he is playing fewer hands in which to drive the action with and probably ends up peeling with flopped weak draws to much as well as this is what real loose people like to do [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

If you were to normalize his AF, it would look far more aggro.

I meant to respond to this post last night, but for whatever reason didn't. I actually like a c/c line here. We give villian some rope to hang himself.

Again this is just a math problem. I haven't done the math, but I'm guessing it leans like so c/c>b/c~b/f but don't quote me on that. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Man of Means]

Preflop, flop, turn look super standard - passive players call more than they bluff/bet.

On the river we should note that A9, A8, A5, A3, A2 just "got there" and this is a heads-up blind battle (+ shorthanded to begin with?)
Do these weaker aces make up a large enough portion of his raising range? Has villain raised weakish rivered top pairs in similar situations or does he tend to just call?

Advocating for check/call:
If you check river, will he usually value bet a weaker ace or lower two pair?

[MrWookie]

Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

[fdwarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is very very standard against a passive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Xylocain]

Just as a note I think there is some bias from Vils raise floating around in the thread. I think this would be a clear bet if action is cut before hero acts on the river so the discussion should be between b/c and b/f and I think we're good 1 in 8 for reasons discussed. This could very well be an overplayed Ax that just got there or a bluff.

People with a vpip of 50 likes to play a lot because playing is fun and they also like to bluff a lot in bad spots because... bluffing a TAG is fun.

If you call you have to be right 1 in 8. If you call and are only right 1 in 16 this is a 0.5 BB mistake. If you fold incorrectly 1 in 4 you have made an 4 BB mistake.

just my 2, hope I got the numbers rite.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wook - It's a value bet against all diamond flush draws and maybe even against hands that have two overcards to the board. It's a value/protection bet if he has a hand like QJ with one card to come.

[RemyXO]

I is approve of da heeros lines.
To all Aaron haters:

(1) Open PokerTracker
(2) Filter on loose passive players. Say, 35/2.0/0.7 or worse
(3) Filter on all the hands where they raised or check-raised the river.
(4) See how many times TPNK would hold up.
(5) Report back the results.

Aaron, ship this to your villain:

[Niediam]

Folding the river because of villian's AF is bad because our sample size is way too small. AF converges relatively fast but after 50 hands I wouldn't be surprised if this guys AF was really 0.25 or 2.

I'm certainly not suggesting that we disregard AF's completely when their accuracy is in doubt. Using it to help decide what to do in a very close decision is perfectly fine. But folding the river when you make toppair/goodkicker for one bet in a 8bb pot when the river was a scare card isn't even close to being close.

As to those who want to c/c the river I think overall its higher EV to bet. Let thinks about some of villian's possible hands:

If he has a 7 he is almost always calling a river bet but will often not bet himself.

If he has a 6 (straight or flush draw on flop) he is almost always calling a river bet but will rarely bet himself.

If he has a a pocket pair 88+ he is always always calling a river bet but may or may not bet himself.

The only hand that we beat that we would really want to check to is missed overcards. He may or may not bluff these but in general I would not expect a bluff.

Obviously if villian has a flush we don't want to put two bets in but really there isn't any reason to believe that he has one until he raises the river.

It's unlikely that villian has a bigger ace (even though A7 and A6 are certainly possible) because he only called preflop.