Bad river card?

[BigBadBabar]

top pair (= big hand), raised pot, big pot, 6max = aggro = don't fold big hands

[marchron]

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nightwood, sorry, nope, not at 6m, not at this limit

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Please, just a short outline why.

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Nobody, especially in 6-max, will call a turn check/raise with a decent hand like a sizable Ace only to check/fold the river. Either they lose a share of the pot those times their Villain (Hero in this case) is getting overaggro (and this happens in 6-max), or they're just throwing a bet away by not simply bet/folding the turn.

Now there may be a small chance that a Villain would raise Ace-rag and would call the turn c/r hoping to suck out a win or a chop and then fold the river, but since the board paired, now he has his chop with anything less than A8 and would thus make the crying call.

Yeah, you may run into someone just dumb enough to fold Ax here, but those players are so rare that it's not worth factoring that into any EV consideration.



BTW, check, Aaron. Ax makes up too much of his range and he's not folding it.

[nightwood]

Anyways, chances are way higher he calls with his ace than with his king.

I change my opinion to check.

And thanks.

[CrMenace]

I didn't think about there being two Ks out there and three As... so on the face of it a bet would appear to be less than 50% likely to win.

[Shillx]

I'd bet. You have to give extra weight to hands like KQ imo

[marchron]

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You have to give extra weight to hands like KQ imo

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Why?

[milesdyson]

durr check. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] not close at all imo

two kings showing, he raised preflop, and he called the turn raise. dunno how you can weight KQ more than AT.

Board: Ks 5c Ac 8d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 32 0.00 { Kh8c }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { QQ, AQs-A9s, K9s+, AQo-A9o, KTo+ }

[Buzz-cp]

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i check

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ditto

no val-U here

[Dr. Matt]

wow what a terrible river. Sorry Aaron, I'd check behind. I can't put him on a hand we beat at this point that isn't low on his list of possible hands.

[Aaron W.]

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Bad river card?

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Yes.

I checked behind and was surprised to see that I outdrew K9o. I did not include such a weak K in his SB raising range.