NL100 hand, but its deep, and i have a weird read

[tubasteve]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $156.60
BB: $115.00
UTG: $423.05
Hero (MP): $250.15
CO: $99.50
BTN: $100.00

Reads: <font color="blue">4 villain seemed kinda bad but I wasn't sure. he was like 24/15/1.6 over 1k hands but they were mostly datamined. he played a weird hand where he raised AKs and bet/3-bet AI on a rag board...getting it in against an A-high FD but losing. i guess he either really sucks or had an amazing read, but yea i thought he was kinda bad/bluffy.

his c/r flop % was only 2% but over a 1k hand sample i'm not sure if that means much.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, CO calls $4.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($15) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $39.00</font>, Hero calls $28.00

Turn: ($93) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $70.00</font>, Hero....?

Pot Size: $93.00 ($3 Rake)

I don't really think the flop is anything but a call/reevaluate vs this guy. I was hoping he'd check his missed draws, and I was going to fold on any diamond, Q, 7, and I was going to consider folding if the 67 straight draw came in, or if the 8 paired. When he bet $70 I wasn't really sure what to do since I wasn't committed and I thought he would fire the river a lot. I assume fold is standard, but my read was that villain sucked so I'm still not sure.

edit: just realized if a diamond fell i'd have the nut redraw, but thats not good enough to continue on the turn if the flush comes and he makes a decent sized bet, right?

also mods, if this doesn't really qualify for MSNL just delete. i x-posted in SSNL but i don't really trust people there to give good advice when we're 250bb deep. (including myself, don't worry SSNLers)

[xorbie]

i would evaluate my hand into the muck

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
i would evaluate my hand into the muck

[/ QUOTE ]

play the flop the same? also, i would appreciate comments on my thought process since this is a fairly complicated hand compared to what I'm used to dealing with.

[Nick Royale]

I push. If he limp/calls A9/A8/99/88 from UTG then so be it. He doesn't seem to be the player who does it. He also has proven to retardly overplaying hands and many players do stupid [censored] with draws oop on the turn when their semibluff gets called. A push is actually a small raise.

If you're behind 98s is most likely, that 2 combos. A9s+A8s is 3 combos. 99+88 is 6 combos but they should def be discounted.

Looking at the combos we're ahead there's tons of SCs, oesds, pair+fd etc etc.

Pretty easy push imo.

[cowpig]

[ QUOTE ]
I push. If he limp/calls A9/A8/99/88 from UTG then so be it. He doesn't seem to be the player who does it. He also has proven to retardly overplaying hands and many players do stupid [censored] with draws oop on the turn when their semibluff gets called. A push is actually a small raise.

If you're behind 98s is most likely, that 2 combos. A9s+A8s is 3 combos. 99+88 is 6 combos but they should def be discounted.

Looking at the combos we're ahead there's tons of SCs, oesds, pair+fd etc etc.

Pretty easy push imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing is fkin absurd.

I really don't know what range to put an UTG limp/caller on, so I'll just assume he can have anything?

I'd play flop the same, and I'd probably call turn and fold to a river bet. I think most people with a draw here will give up if they miss on the river, and made hands besides sets are probably going to c/c river.

The nice thing about a call, fold to river bet is that he gets no implied odds on his draws since you are in position. If his timing/spewiness leads you to believe he's firing the river a lot, then I would lean towards calling the river too (as opposed to folding the turn).

If he was a nit, or played his draws passively, however, I would take xorbie's advice.

edit: All this could change very dramatically based on what you think his limp/calling range is UTG.

[tubasteve]

i definitely think 88/99 are possible but he might raise those UTG, so I give it about 50/50 probability. I'm sure however that A8s/A9s/89s are in this guys UTG limp/call range, as well as tons of hands that would give him draws on this flop.

edit: calling turn to fold later in the hand seems really bad. if i'm putting him on a draw/other hand i beat, shoving the turn seems to be the best play. i doubt he bluffs $130 on the end when the pot is already $240, and if he shoves river i can't fold, so sticking it in seems best if im gonna continue.

[cowpig]

[ QUOTE ]
i definitely think 88/99 are possible but he might raise those UTG, so I give it about 50/50 probability. I'm sure however that A8s/A9s/89s are in this guys UTG limp/call range, as well as tons of hands that would give him draws on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this, I am leaning more towards xorbie's advice. You are not doing very well against that range. If he's capable of firing the river w/a missed draw this is a super easy fold.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure however that A8s/A9s/89s are in this guys UTG limp/call range, as well as tons of hands that would give him draws on this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]
I find it hard for all these hands to be in his limp/call range, plus 50% of PPs and still run at 24/15. Well I'm even going to say it's close to impossible.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push. If he limp/calls A9/A8/99/88 from UTG then so be it. He doesn't seem to be the player who does it. He also has proven to retardly overplaying hands and many players do stupid [censored] with draws oop on the turn when their semibluff gets called. A push is actually a small raise.

If you're behind 98s is most likely, that 2 combos. A9s+A8s is 3 combos. 99+88 is 6 combos but they should def be discounted.

Looking at the combos we're ahead there's tons of SCs, oesds, pair+fd etc etc.

Pretty easy push imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing is fkin absurd.

I really don't know what range to put an UTG limp/caller on, so I'll just assume he can have anything?

I'd play flop the same, and I'd probably call turn and fold to a river bet. I think most people with a draw here will give up if they miss on the river, and made hands besides sets are probably going to c/c river.

The nice thing about a call, fold to river bet is that he gets no implied odds on his draws since you are in position. If his timing/spewiness leads you to believe he's firing the river a lot, then I would lean towards calling the river too (as opposed to folding the turn).

If he was a nit, or played his draws passively, however, I would take xorbie's advice.

edit: All this could change very dramatically based on what you think his limp/calling range is UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]
Omg, villain is getting almost 3:1 if we push, he's going to call a ton of combo draws and the pot is already huge so if he folds when he has a oesd or fd it's ok. A push will be close to only 1/2 psr. Calling is [censored] retarded.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure however that A8s/A9s/89s are in this guys UTG limp/call range, as well as tons of hands that would give him draws on this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]
I find it hard for all these hands to be in his limp/call range, plus 50% of PPs and still run at 24/15. Well I'm even going to say it's close to impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

you may be right...but he is UTG, and those numbers take into consideration his stats in every position. so i definitely think he can limp middle pairs and suited aces in EP, even though most of the time he is in a later position and is raising them.