Interesting All-in Situation (Yes, this is limit)

[Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you turn this into a real-time table calculation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t know if this is ad hoc or not but:

If he has a lone flush draw that is 9 clubs left:.

9/37cards left = 0.2 out for each hand
78 total 2 suited hands
Each club he holds eliminates 12 hands * 2 = 24
78-24=54 * 0.2 ~ 11 outs
plus 3 outs for overs(standard SSHE) = 14 outs total
32/14 ~2:1 ~ 30%

No, I don’t think this an in play calc but it is easy to remember.

[i] if you use 9/37=0.24
you get 54*0.24=12.96 outs
plus 3 = 16
29/16 = 1.9:1 still ~ 30%

[maverickai]

Reaction, dun really understand your formula. Where did you base that calculation on?

I'm puttin villian on flush draw, or a pair.

Percent of villian hitting flush and win:
19.6%

Percent of Hero hitting A or Q (excluding A, Q clubs) to win:
10.9%

Percent of Hero hitting A or Q, but villian has 2 pair:
10%

Percent of Hero winning based on A high, and no cards helped villian or hero:
100-(19.6+10.9+10) = 59.5%

EV =19.6/100*(-0.875BB)+10.9/100*(6.375BB)+10/100*(-0.875BB)+59.5/100*(6.375BB) = 4.23BB

So it's a call on the river!

I wonder is my formulation correct/wrong here? Seems to contradict my earlier post... which I think it should be a fold.

[Sushiglutton]

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Can you turn this into a real-time table calculation?

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I wish. Basically it's the FD that makes calling correct assuming he holds 'something'.

[beyazkus]

* g *

the villian seems to have a flush draw or top pair. a two pair seems quite unlikely unless he has specifically T6s, and the flop donk is a terrible play of a set, which also makes it relatively unlikely.

thus if villian has a flush you are sure to be ahead, if villain has the unlikely two pair or set you are drawing dead, if he has a pair you have 6 outs.

getting around 6.5 - 1 it is an easy call...