How much do you want to bet he doesn't have AJ?

[Sushiglutton]

Tough question. I go with one more raise. I think his range is mostly high PP even at this point. This is a steal flop cause it missed many hands. There is also a two flush wich may trigger action. Maybe he is planning to check behid again? Probably not though.

[bellatrix]

Cap is good! People overplay overpairs all the time.
Just this morning I had somebody cap me on the flop and turn with JJ on a 76A6 board. No raise pre-flop and I held the 76.

[Sushiglutton]

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22 and AJ is in his range and only a moron is raising the turn with AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

But so is QJ,JTs? I don't think his turn raise is that strong. The texture of the flop with a two-flush, a medium pair and a deuce looks like a stealing flop. Maybe he thinks Hero is trying to muscle him out? Or maybe he think Hero can hold KK-TT?


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Second to folding too much, giving too much action to LAGs is the leak I notice the most in 6-max. Anyone who wants to 3-bet this turn based on the info in OP should revise his play vs LAGs.

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I am not good versus LAGs [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].

[Oink]

Good point sushi

The thing is there is only 1 JTs combo left and 4 QJ and AJ each.

The other problem is that we need 67% eq vs his range to 3-bet as he is capping all better hands.

For 3-betting to be good we must put AA and KK in his range with a fairly high frequency.

This is a problem since raising the turn with AA in villains place is retarded. So in order to 3-bet we basically must assume that he is retarded and assuming this based on preflop stats is really not the way to go about it.

Call down and make a note if he has AA or KK. Then jam it next time.


It cant be stressed enough: LAGs in 6max arent necessarily bad and spewy postflop. They have gotten 1 thing right compared to LAPs; they are aggro.

It is often my experience that TAG fish are more spewy postflop than 55/25 guys.

[sharpie]

Worse Jx are probably in his range range, but need to be discounted since he might just coldcall these. With the read he's weak on the river, I doubt he's raising AA here.

[sharpie]

In my opinion it's rarer that 55/25's are good postflop, especially at 1/2. At the medium stakes, usually with a bit lower VPIP they're often good postflop. Not that I haven't played with some decent 50/25's, but at 1/2 I doubt there's many.

[Oink]

Ya I should be clearer. I dont mean that they own postflop. Just saying they arent necessarily complete idiots