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#112
09-25-2007, 10:47 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
So Cal is not the favorite on a neutral field against Oregon? Bizarre. [/ QUOTE ] I'll admit that I don't really get the line. I'm higher on Oregon than anyone, (have them as #5 in the country), think they're definitely better than Cal on a neutral field in a power rating sense, but with the matchups, I'd still have to lean Cal. Both Oregon and Cal are running teams as Oregon ranks 4th in rushing and 50th in passing while Cal ranks 23rd in rushing and 69th in passing. However, while rush defense is a relative strength for Cal (#30 vs. #59 in pass efficency D), it's a definite weakness for Oregon (#77 vs. #34). They gave up 315 yards on the ground to Houston and 140+ to both Michigan and Stanford. I just don't see how they stop Justin Forsett. If I had to pick a winner, I'd still probably pick Oregon something like 47-44 in 3OT due to home advantage, but even thinking Oregon's 3-4 points more talented than Cal, I wouldn't put this line above 3. 
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#113
09-25-2007, 10:57 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
My one fear about Oregon is also that they won't stop the run but I think they will score at will on Cal. I have watched all the Cal games this year either live or on TV and they will have trouble with Oregon. Even Arizona looked good against them and they don't have the speed and the precision on offense that Oregon does. Maybe Cal will play their best game this year and I like Tedford but I think Oregon is too good right now and I see them winning by 10-14.
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#114
09-26-2007, 12:14 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
Iggy,
It's not just Forsett in the Cal rushing attack, though. Jahvid Best and James Montgomery are also awesome talents. And then the WRs are very good too with Jackson, Hawkins and Jordan. The defense is certainly an issue but it is a young defense and they are improving every game. Against Arizona and CSU, the scoreline has flattered Cal's opponents as Cal gets out to 3 TD+ leads and then puts in the second string who seems unable to stop a Pop Warner football team. I'm liking Cal a lot here.
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#115
09-26-2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
nate - i was on ASU for the game that got ppd as well.
The latest results definitely warranted a line-change. But this current line implies that Ark St would be just a 1 point fave over MEM on a neutral-field and I strongly disagree with that and think it's partly due to the size and reputations of the 2 programs and conferences somewhat. Ark St's performances vs. TEN and TEX caught my attention. The fact that they have already proven they can beat a CUSA team in SMU pushes me well past the edge. And then MEM's dismal game against UCF...and before that they actually struggled somewhat against freaking Jax St. Wow. Ark St is probably 4 pts better than MEM at least...so at home I would rate them as 7 pt faves. If Ark St got beat up badly against TEN then perhaps that changes things somewhat. Also, as I believe we discussed before, this is something of a revenge game for MEM since they were embarassed at home by these guys last yr so they'll have some extra motivation. Whether morale tanks after their loss last week or they use it to inspire them to work harder in practice this week and perhaps get their act together remains to be seen. But overall I think Ark St has shown that they are way more than just 1 pt better than MEM if playing on a neutral-field but nobody really knows who they are or has paid any attention to them. Even their solid performance against TEX was simply written off to TEX not performing well. Ark St wasn't given any credit for that game by most people nor the TEN game.
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#119
09-26-2007, 12:24 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
why does everyone love ND? Purdues D is not that bad and its at home. I'd stay away. [/ QUOTE ] I have only seen Purdue play once, against Minnesota, but there D looked pretty crappy. I need more info from you Big Ten guys.
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#120
09-26-2007, 12:42 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
USF/W. Virginia Over 55 1 Unit
Syracuse/Miami Ohio Under 51 1 Unit FSU/Alabama Over 43.5 1 Unit Auburn/Florida Over 54.5 1 Unit Louisville/NC St Under 71.5 2 Units Ohio St/Minnesota Under 61 1 Unit Washington/USC over 57 1 Unit Notre Dame/Purdue Over 53 1 Unit
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