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#62
05-06-2007, 01:14 PM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to everyone for the responses. FWIW my stats on this guy are over about 2500 hands. My notes on the guy say 'total nit, don't pay this donkey off' (I mean, I've seen ridiculous stuff from this guy like checking down kings in position in a rr pot on a J9334 board) In the hand when button raised me, I was obv warming up my mouse to slide my chips in and hoping for no diamonds, but when sb shoved, I ended up folding without much thought. Turns out it was a big mistake and sb had AJdd. Button had 89dd and took it down. I guess I psyched myself out a bit here and lost sight of one of the truest facts in poker... UBER NITS SUCK AT POKER [/ QUOTE ] Clayton: I really hate saying "I told you so". Oh, no, wait. I LOVE SAYING THAT [censored]. 
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#63
05-06-2007, 01:51 PM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Thanks to everyone for the responses. FWIW my stats on this guy are over about 2500 hands. My notes on the guy say 'total nit, don't pay this donkey off' (I mean, I've seen ridiculous stuff from this guy like checking down kings in position in a rr pot on a J9334 board) In the hand when button raised me, I was obv warming up my mouse to slide my chips in and hoping for no diamonds, but when sb shoved, I ended up folding without much thought. Turns out it was a big mistake and sb had AJdd. Button had 89dd and took it down. I guess I psyched myself out a bit here and lost sight of one of the truest facts in poker... UBER NITS SUCK AT POKER [/ QUOTE ] Clayton: I really hate saying "I told you so". Oh, no, wait. I LOVE SAYING THAT [censored]. [/ QUOTE ] The thing is, though the fold was bad here, I'm not sure it's a 'bad fold'. I mean, I still think that diamonds are a small part of sb's range there. Especially since button has diamonds like 80% of the time. I don't know I still feel a little sick over the whole thing even though the board went 8,9 and I would have been the victim of a runner runner anyway.
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#65
05-06-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
[ QUOTE ]
Turns out it was a big mistake and sb had AJdd. Button had 89dd and took it down. I guess I psyched myself out a bit here and lost sight of one of the truest facts in poker... UBER NITS SUCK AT POKER [/ QUOTE ] Another example of holding too much faith in stats. Even stats gained over thousand of hands can't always reliably predict that the player does not deviate from them. And they should not make you make a play that you wouldn't make in 99% of the times you're faced with it. One thought that struck me when reading the hand was "wouldn't you just HATE to fold here and see them both show up with diamonds?...".
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#67
05-06-2007, 05:20 PM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Thanks to everyone for the responses. FWIW my stats on this guy are over about 2500 hands. My notes on the guy say 'total nit, don't pay this donkey off' (I mean, I've seen ridiculous stuff from this guy like checking down kings in position in a rr pot on a J9334 board) In the hand when button raised me, I was obv warming up my mouse to slide my chips in and hoping for no diamonds, but when sb shoved, I ended up folding without much thought. Turns out it was a big mistake and sb had AJdd. Button had 89dd and took it down. I guess I psyched myself out a bit here and lost sight of one of the truest facts in poker... UBER NITS SUCK AT POKER [/ QUOTE ] Clayton: I really hate saying "I told you so". Oh, no, wait. I LOVE SAYING THAT [censored]. [/ QUOTE ] The thing is, though the fold was bad here, I'm not sure it's a 'bad fold'. I mean, I still think that diamonds are a small part of sb's range there. Especially since button has diamonds like 80% of the time. I don't know I still feel a little sick over the whole thing even though the board went 8,9 and I would have been the victim of a runner runner anyway. [/ QUOTE ] I'm saying that suited connectors in [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s as well as suited broadway-type big-hands with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s are all in a 17% VPiP's range for calling here. Especially a 17/7 who, as a general principle, doesn't follow any "3-bet or fold" logic with hands like that (otherwise his pfr would be higher, no?). And if you had a hand like that, no matter how nitty you are, you aren't ever ccing buttons raise with it. Because you are smart enough to know that the pfr is yet to act and might push an overpair. So, if he has a hand like that, he's not folding it (too many outs), so he's pushing it. In other words, none of the action has eliminated these hands from SB's range.
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#69
05-07-2007, 07:27 AM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't care what anyone says. Instacall. Anyone that says this is an ez fold is clearly retarded [/ QUOTE ] ok [/ QUOTE ] u clearly disagree. I am very curious as to why [/ QUOTE ] I do not disagree. Actualy I am not sure if I have an opening, I just hate your tone.
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#70
05-09-2007, 10:21 AM
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Re: SHIP I........hmmm.....wait a second
Clayton & others seem awfully grumpy in this thread.
This is just the kind of hand that I need a real read to do something with. After playing 2500 hands with this guy, I would be able to tell practically his exact 2 cards. I dont care what his stats are. This is either an eager call or a secure fold, depending on the opponent.
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