Live 10-20 hand.

[Frond]

I like PF raise with this hand on the BTn all the time. What is wrong with building a big pot with QKo on the BTN? Same goes for AJo on the BTn for me. Most of the time I just think we have to exploit any PF edges when we have them. One of the reasons besides value is that in a session we sometimes don't get any premium hands for long spells.

[KitCloudkicker]

if he's really that good he may put you on a weak holding here making a button flop bet. i guess you're checking the turn to "confirm his read," but even if you bet the turn he may call anyway.

id bet the turn.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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Let's see if I can make sense of this...

Since the good player didn't bet the flop, you figure that he's not that likely to have 2 clubs - after he calls your bet, he most likely has some sort of peeling hand like a pair+BDFD. The 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn kills his backdoor outs, and since you've got 2 pair now, if he's got a hand like 78 then he's only got 2 outs to beat you instead of 5. With only 4 BB in the pot, you don't mind giving him a small chance to beat you, since your check behind looks so much like a flush draw that he'll bet the river pretty much every time, whereas he'll usually fold to your turn bet. On the river you have the best hand most of the time, but you just call because the good player won't call a raise unless you are beat.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is that I can't think of any hands that a good player would play this way on the flop. What hand is he willing to call a bet with (heads-up, OOP, against another good player) that he won't bet himself after most of the field checks to him?

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This is an excellent post. Word for word, this is exactly what I was thinking during this hand.

The good player cant have Kx,7x,a FD,88+,22, cuz he would just bet the flop. When he called my flop bet I was like WTF?? I knew I had to immediately revise my thinking on what this guy would and would not bet the flop with. I decided to assume that he would surely bet the flop with Kx or better and a FD, so when he called the flop I figured his most likely hand was 7x or precisely A2s.

Once the 2 hits the turn, I believe the expert play here is to check, not to induce a bluff, but to induce a river call from a hand that would likely fold the turn.

I cant remember the last time I checked the turn for this specific reason as this is a pretty rare situation but Im convinced its the right play. If the villain has 7x his most likely action on the turn is to just fold when I bet. And even if my judgement is wrong and he would call the turn with 7x, hes not gonna call again on the river, so the most I will gain from him when he has 7x is 1BB, but if I bet the turn there is a great chance he will fold and I will lose out on this 1BB whereas If I check the turn there is now a great chance he will either bet the river with 7x or check/call with 7x. Since he only has 2 outs with this hand the last thing I want him to do is fold the turn.

Another obvious benefit to checking the turn is I avoid a checkraise those times the villain has A2s which is arguably his most likely hand from a logical perspective. If I did get check/raised on the turn I would probably call down against this guy cuz I dont completely trust him. This is yet another reason why I believe checking the turn is the unequivocal best play, but still the most important reason why I thinking checking this turn is best becuz 7x has only 2 outs to beat us and I believe this guy will likely fold the turn if I bet, and I dont want this event to happen.

After I checked the turn and a blank hit, and my opponent bet I decided calling was best becuz I strongly felt he would not call a raise with 7x, his most likely 2nd best hand. I wasnt afraid of getting 3bet since this would be an easy fold for me cuz that will mean he has 2x. I didnt raise the river cuz I simply couldnt find any value in it vs this specific opponent.

So I called the river and my opponent turned over J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and my hand was good. I have no idea why he didnt bet the flop with this hand but his play illustrates exactly what n.s. was talking about. As n.s. said there really was no hand that made sense for the villain's flop play and in the end he had a hand that did not make sense.

The reason I posted this hand is becuz I thought the turn/river play was interesting as it showed how sound handreading+accurate judgement of opponent can sometimes lead us into taking lines that may seem counterintuitive to many people but are nevertheless correct.

If my opponent was one of the typical loose passive players that frequent this game, I wouldve bet the turn confident that he is never folding 7x on the turn or river and I would have no problem folding to a checkraise since this action will always mean im toast.

Although I misread my opponent's holding. I felt I made the right plays for the right reasons and in the end thats really all that matters.

[StrictlyStrategy]

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So I called the river and my opponent turned over J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and my hand was good. I have no idea why he didnt bet the flop with this hand

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He's probably not as good as you think.

Also, knowing his hand bet the turn again. You get one more bet in ahead and he might get suspicious sometimes and look you up if a J or T hits.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

"well, if he really is good, he doesn't have a king, a 7, a pp higher than a 7, a flush draw and a straight draw isn't possible"

I agree but when I say hes good, I mean 10-20 live good which means were still talking about a player that probably cannot beat 2-4 online.

"so basically, he's gotta be holding a 2 and you should fold to his river bet, bc I can't think of a hand this good player could be value betting and he can't have air either bc he wouldn't have called your flop bet"

I agree that 2x is his most likely holding from a logical perspective meaning probably A2s.

"but folding is rather impossible, which leaves you with calling only, which is fine bc he could actually be holding the 7, although I'm not sure he'd be betting it on the river, bc I'd see more value in inducing a bluff from his perspective"

Yeah, betting the river with a hand like 7x is probably a bad play vs me unless he has exactly A7 since I may call him with a worse 7x but that may not bet if he checks. As I mentioned in my result post, I couldnt find any value in a river raise.

"I am raising KQ pre flop all day though and I think calling (other than the occasional mix up) is wrong"

Calling may indeed be wrong. I am still stuck in the HPFAP paradigm on this one, which is why I dont raise in this specific situation. It is possible that HPFAP is wrong or outdated thus leading to a flawed basic strategy on my part. FWIW my default play in this spot with KQo is to raise 2 or less limpers and call against 3 or more limpers.

"*here I wrote a couple lines to explain this, but I don't want to offend you by 'educating' you about basic stuff, which you probably know a lot more about than me, so I deleted it*"

Never worry about offending me. I may know exactly what youre going to say but other lurkers will still appreciate your analysis.

"I'd love to hear more about not raising this hand pre flop though and why you think not raising will get you more value from the hand, bc I really really don't see it"

The truth is I dont know whether raising is better than calling. I have no empirical evidence to support/disprove either strategy.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I'd pretty much always bet the turn here. The rest of the hand looks good.

Rob

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Against most players in my game I would bet the turn in this spot.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I think you should bet/fold the turn (since he is a live 'good' player playing 10/20).

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice to see you posting again Matt. Ive occasionally opened my AIM to see if youre around but you havent been there. We'll have to talk sometime. Lately Ive been really busy between trying to get my hands in and somehow keep my girlfriend happy by seeing her as much as I can. I hope youre doing well in poker and life. We will talk soon.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So I called the river and my opponent turned over J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and my hand was good. I have no idea why he didnt bet the flop with this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably not as good as you think.



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I guess I shouldve been more specific when I said good. I said this in another post in this thread but I'll say it again. When I say someone is a good 10-20 live poker player, that doesnt mean I think that much of him. A good 10-20 live player still is unlikely to be able to beat 2-4 online poker.

[JJH3984]

If your read is that he is a "good 10-20 live player" you should bet this turn all day. I really like a turn check in the same spot against a "good 2-4 online player" though.

[DeathDonkey]

Just want to chime in to say I never raise here preflop and agree with your preflop raising range you gave in the OP except I raise some smaller suited connectors because raising is fun and it helps my image at pretty much no loss.

-DeathDonkey