***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[rwperu34]

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Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every scenario. Back to the drawing board.


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Whether it's always the best solution is arguable. In this case, the highest EV is the ONLY solution!

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Do you not think of concepts like contracts/variance/etc? Or really are you just [censored] stupid?

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Do you mean variance like my winrate might be 2.0 to 5.0 or it might be 1.5 to 2.5? Because I know which one has higher variance and I know which one I'd prefer to have.

Spelled O-U-T; Young has a higher variance, but he's got a higher ceiling and floor. What you are looking to avoid is risk, and in this case, Garza is carries more.

What did I miss on the contract? It looks to me like both of these guys are going to make < $500k in 2008 and 2009. I hope you're not trying to argue some marginal value that Garza might have in 2013?

[rwperu34]

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i put my writeup of the trade on my blog. cliffs: d-rays win, as usual

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I though this was particularly funny;

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Tampa has pulled off a nice trade that gives them an outside chance of contending for a playoff spot.


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The Rays just pulled themselves within 20 games of a playoff spot. I'll admit, that's the closest they've ever been! If the Rays all perform near their ceiling in 2008, they've got about a 10% chance of beating the Yankees OR Red Sox, let alone both. In the real world, the Rays are going to project 15-20 games behind second place in the AL East and open the season with little to no chance to make the playoffs.

If your goal is to win as many games in 2008 as possible, then maybe there is some justification for this deal for the Rays. Even that's arguable. If your goal is to make the playoffs as many times as possible over the next 2-3 years, this deal is a near disaster. This is very poor use of resources, and a blue print in how to minimize value.

[DesertCat]

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.

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He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.

[DesertCat]

Actually I thought about a couple more points. You keep referring to DY as a five tool player, but he's horrible defensively, he's got a strong arm but no accuracy, he strikes out way too much and walks way too little, is a lousy baserunner and hasn't shown any power above AA.

DY led the entire AL in outs and GIDP this year! And he was even a little lucky on balls hit in play.

So what five "tools" are you talking about? He's got speed, but he doesn't put it to any good use. What other tools does he have? He can hit for average but it doesn't matter cause he can't get on base at any good rate (and has been lucky on balls hit in play), has shown no power against real competition, can't run decent routes, can't steal bases, and may be a head case.

There are examples like Sammy Sosa and Roberto Clemente who took a few years to figure things out, then became (likely) Hall of Famers. But if DY takes another 3 years to play like an all-star, he'll be a free agent before the Twins get any real value out of him. Why do the Twins need a project in their outfield for the next two years on the off chance he'll bloom right when they can no longer afford him?

[crockpot]

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The Rays just pulled themselves within 20 games of a playoff spot.

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if i wasn't so sure vegas would open the tampa o/u at 68 wins next year, i'd put about half my bankroll on under 20 here.

i'm too old for childish back-and-forth arguments on 2+2, but here goes anyway: teams with near-.500 talent make the playoffs all the time. the diamondbacks and rockies did it this year, tigers and cardinals the year before that. the 2005 white sox won the world series with a .500 team.

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If your goal is to make the playoffs as many times as possible over the next 2-3 years, this deal is a near disaster.

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basically, what i'm getting out of this is that you're completely ignoring the updated projections for delmon young and pretending it's still 2005. when pecota and zips publish their forecasts for delmon's 2008-10, you're going to be very disappointed; i'd be surprised if he projects to be worth one win more than the average right fielder in 2010.

[rwperu34]

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.

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He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.

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Funny you brought all that up, because I want to put Delmon's youth into perspective.

Delmon was 21 years old for 2007 and had 642 AB. There were two others that had 300+, Billy Butler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There were two players in AAA that managed 300+ AB, Adam Jones and Daric Barton. FWIW, what Delmon did in the show in 2007 was on par with what Adam Jones did repeating AAA. There were a measly 13 players in AA that had over 300 PA at age 21 or younger, and not suprisingly, those are some of the best prospects in the game.

Heading into 2007, PECOTA projected 21 players with an eqOPS of .900 or more. It's safe to assume that these were 21 of the very best hitters in the game. This is where they were at age 21;

Jason Bay-Hit 2 HR in 135 AB in low A with a 17% K rate.

Carlos Beltran-Started the year in low A, finished in the show. Had his major league breakout at age 22 with an OPS of 99 (Young's was 91 in 2007, despite being a year younger)

Lance Berkman-Spanking bombs at Rice University. He wouldn't even sniff the majors until his age 23 season. His OPS+ over his first 446 MLB AB was a full 30 pts lower than his career avg through 2007.

Barry Bonds-Started the year in AAA and put up a decent showing in his big league debut. He's obviously a special case, but his OPS+ was 70 pts higher during his first peak and 150 pts higher during his second peak. Tools made good.

Miguel Cabrera-In his second season in the show, basically a major league super star. It should still be noted that he added 20 points of OPS+ from his age 21 season to his peak.

Carlos Delgado-Perfoming well in AA. He wouldn't get a full time gig in the show until he was 24, and even then he was 27 pts OPS+ better for his career and 40+ OPS+ pts better in his peak.

Adam Dunn-Outrageous year between AA/AAA/MLB. Hasn't improved on his age 21 season.

Jason Giambi-13 games of pro ball at age 21. Didn't make it to the majors until 24. His OPS+ in his first full season was 38 points less than his career avg, although if you want to put an * here, I'll understand.

Vlad Guerrero-Put up an OPS+ of 117 in the majors over 325 AB. Broke out to 150 the next year and hasn't looked back.

Travis Hafner-16 HR in 425 AB in A ball. Didn't get his first full time MLB gig until age 27.

Ryan Howard-Another college guy playing in low A, wouldn't see regular playing time until he's 25.

Nick Johnson-Out for the year. Was crazy as a 20yo in AA, and might be one of the few cases where an injury affects the career of a position player. Had an OPS+ of <99 thorugh age 23, 125 for career.

Chipper Jones-Put up similar power with less Ks at AAA. Got injured the next year, put up an OPS+ of 108 the next, 143 for career.

Joe Mauer-Damn these injuries. 100 dominant ABs in the bigs. 107 OPS+ at age 22 in first full time duty, > 130 since.

David Ortiz-Big Papi hit a lot of home runs in the minors, but started the year in A+. His age 27-31 OPS+ is ~50 pts higher than his age 21-25 OPS+.

Albert Pujols-Major league superstar, has only marginally improved since his age 21 rookie of the year.

Aramis Ramirez-Playing well in AAA after a failed MLB stint at age 20. OPS+ through 550 AB of ~70, broke out at age 23 with 122, slid back for a year, then had a peak of ~132.

Manny Ramirez-Spanking the ball between AA and AAA. Was a full fledged star by age 23.

Alex Rodriguez-In his second full season in the bigs and already an MVP candidate.

Frank Thomas-Struggled out of college in high A. Broke out at age 22, basically starting his peak immidiately.

David Wright-Had his breakout year, starting in AA and ending up in MLB. His career OPS+ is 20 pts higher than his age 21 263 AB season. Was likely as good as he's going to be by age 22.

[rwperu34]

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Actually I thought about a couple more points. You keep referring to DY as a five tool player, but he's horrible defensively, he's got a strong arm but no accuracy, he strikes out way too much and walks way too little, is a lousy baserunner and hasn't shown any power above AA.

DY led the entire AL in outs and GIDP this year! And he was even a little lucky on balls hit in play.

So what five "tools" are you talking about? He's got speed, but he doesn't put it to any good use. What other tools does he have? He can hit for average but it doesn't matter cause he can't get on base at any good rate (and has been lucky on balls hit in play), has shown no power against real competition, can't run decent routes, can't steal bases, and may be a head case.

There are examples like Sammy Sosa and Roberto Clemente who took a few years to figure things out, then became (likely) Hall of Famers. But if DY takes another 3 years to play like an all-star, he'll be a free agent before the Twins get any real value out of him. Why do the Twins need a project in their outfield for the next two years on the off chance he'll bloom right when they can no longer afford him?

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Five tools-

Hit for average-check
Hit for power-check
Run fast-check, although even the scouts predicted he'll lose his speed early.
defense-Scouts say he'll end up about average. I might be willing to give him a pass on 2007, depending on how much of his horrible defensive stats are due to his 29 games in CF. For example, the BP's stats have him at -6 in CF and -2 in RF. -2 is a little below average, but not someone I'd call horrible, especially when they are heading into their age 22 season.
arm-I don't really know where you get the no accuracy from. He's got a hose, and from what I understand, arm accuracy is one of his strengths.

Regardless of what he's produced, which is pretty damn good, the tools signify that he's got the athletisicm to be a star. The fact that he's in the bigs at age 21 and putting up a reasonable line shows that he's got the skills to be a star. When you add all that up, he's one of the best prospects around. I will readily admit, he's still a prospect. It seems like I'm the only one that realizes Garza is also just a prospect.

I wonder what players have tools as good or better than Young in the majors and minors? Once you make that list, eliminate the guys that are already stars. It's a short list, and few of those guys have put up numbers as good as Delmon at any level, let alone in major league baseball.

[rwperu34]

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if i wasn't so sure vegas would open the tampa o/u at 68 wins next year, i'd put about half my bankroll on under 20 here.

i'm too old for childish back-and-forth arguments on 2+2, but here goes anyway: teams with near-.500 talent make the playoffs all the time. the diamondbacks and rockies did it this year, tigers and cardinals the year before that. the 2005 white sox won the world series with a .500 team.


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Here's the thing. None of those .500 teams made the playoffs in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Both components of the Evil Empire are going to project in the ballpark of 95 wins for next season. Tampa will project at 75-80. There will be a minimum of 15 games separating Tampa from not one, but two teams, within their division. Even if they are better than the Blue Jays and can beat up on them and the Orioles, they've really got <5% chance to get into the playoffs. Even if they were a one in eight shot once they got there, they'd be over 100:1 against to win the WS. Without doing any real math or figuring, I'd put that in the same ballpark as the hapless-I-start-matt-morris Pirates.

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basically, what i'm getting out of this is that you're completely ignoring the updated projections for delmon young and pretending it's still 2005. when pecota and zips publish their forecasts for delmon's 2008-10, you're going to be very disappointed; i'd be surprised if he projects to be worth one win more than the average right fielder in 2010.

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One thing I've leared about PECOTA is, it's not really any different than any other projection system. If a player is coming off of a big year, his projection will be high, if he's coming off of a bad/injured year, his projection will be low. So yes, I expect Young's PECOTA to be bad, and I expect he will outproduce it. Sometimes violently.

FWIW, ZIPS has him at .292/.323./424/.767, although interestingly, Vg in RF.

[Vyse]

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I also wonder how Young gets anointed as a complete risky player with all this downside when Garza is clearly the riskier player? What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

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Dude, what are you talking about? Once a pitcher demonstrates an ability to rape AA and AAA he's not NEARLY as risky as before. Garza is great in the stat that most accurately reflects future viability for a pitcher: HR/9. And he has a strong K rate. Those are arguably the two most important stats for a prospect, and Garza is well above average in both.

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The point is, he's more likely to not be valuable than Young is, if for no other reason than because he's a pitcher.

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This is just incredibly wrong, you're really overrating the whole TINSTAAPP crap.

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On top of that, I forgot all about Niemann! Damn the Rays are deep in young pitching.

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No, they were deep on high-upside, very risky young pitching. Like Jackson and Niemann. They were very low on reltively sure bets for young pitchers. Like Shields and Garza. They have so much hitting, they already had to trade some of their OFs, but rather than selling low low low on Baldelli and Gomes or even Crawford, they sold high on an overrated player.

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It seems like I'm usually the one defending the spenders! Is this the time for the Rays? Hell no! They just improved their 2008 projected wins from 76 to 78. It's not worth giving up future value for that, and they did, even though it's "riskier".

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They gained a lot of future value, lol.


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I think this is where we have the disconnect. Who is going to start in RF and at DH for the Rays in 2008 and 2009?

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Elijah Dukes is 23 and has way better plate discipline and just as much power, and higher upside than Young. Seriously, if you want to talk about tools and only tools and so conveniently ignore how horrible Young's performance has been for a so-called top prospect (uh how many top prospects have such horrible lines in the minors and majors over the last couple of years?), Dukes >>>> Young obv. Desmond Jennings is one of the best CF prospects in the game (ranked higher than Ellsbury on Goldstein's midseason list) and would be on track for a debut in 09 if he keeps it up.

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Baldelli? Don't forget a ton of his value was tied up in the fact that he was a good fielding speedy CF. If he can't stay healthy in RF, how good of a DH will he be? Dukes? Well, I like the upside, but do you really want to count on this guy?

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They only need one of three to build value, then trades all day long or just be fine with a league average RF.

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which the Rays are, even if it's for 2009.

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So why in the world are you acting like it's a problem at ALL, like the Rays need a RF in the next year? They don't. And even if every option fails, they have a ton of trade options because they have so many good young players. Wow, put Upton in RF and Jennings in CF. So hard.

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You know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of when Alfonso Soriano was traded for Brad Wilkerson. SE was like "Huge win for the Rangers," and I said, "Have you lost your mind? Soriano has tools baby!" Then SE said, "Yeah, but even if Soriano is a little better than Wilkerson, the Rangers got Sledge too," and I said, "huh?"

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Dude, if this was your logic for how the Nats won, LMFAO. That doesn't make you right; you were right for the wrong reason[s]. The Rangers destroyed that trade in any objective measurement at the time, no need to play revisionist history.

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Question. What translates into major league superstardom? Is it tools?

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Usually great production at a young age. Young's clock is ticking.

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Is it guys that hold their own at age 21 in MLB?

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Usually that's a decent indicator, but not when said player has shown dramatic regression in the process. He's usually not becoming a star.

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Is it minor league track record?

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Sustained minor league track record, yes.

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Because Delmon has all of this in his favor.

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Maybe two years ago. Not now.

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Overrated compared to who? If anything, Young is underrated and Garza is overrated.

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Young's trade value is obv Garza. He is viewed by many sources as one of the best prospects in baseball. He is not. Hence, overrated.

[Vyse]

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One thing I've leared about PECOTA is, it's not really any different than any other projection system. If a player is coming off of a big year, his projection will be high, if he's coming off of a bad/injured year, his projection will be low. So yes, I expect Young's PECOTA to be bad, and I expect he will outproduce it. Sometimes violently.

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This is such a big LOL, I'd advise you editing this or something if you really want your opinions to be taken seriously by anyone on this board who knows what they're talking about.