200NL - Value Bet Or Check Down River With Set?

[The Eureka Kid]

<font color="green"> Villain in this hand is TheYeti, he runs 16/9/1.43 over 1000 hands. We haven't tangled much, when we do it's usually me three-betting his LP raise and him giving a speech then folding. </font>

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $205.35
CO: $135.55
BTN: $52.60
SB: $84.70
BB: $198
UTG: $241.80
UTG+1: $354.35
UTG+2: $187.30
MP1: $172.75

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $2, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $8, UTG+2 calls $8

Flop: ($31) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

<font color="green"> Chose to peel not c-bet here. Connected board, two callers. Pretty standard right? </font>

Turn: ($31) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $26</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $85</font>, BB calls $59

<font color="green"> TheYeti leads out, is he only calling my raise here if he has me beat? </font>

River: ($201) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

<font color="green"> The flush draw got there, possible straight, higher sets. Value betting extracts from KJ/44, but I'm not so sure that is such a big part of his range here. In years gone by I would have been happy to check this down, but now I'm always looking to value bet where I can... is this too thin? </font>

Thanks guys, appreciate your responses [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Acevader]

I value shove as he's committed after he called the turn even if he only has TPGK. It's unlikely he has a higher set and I very much doubt he'd check a river flush to you given the action in this hand since you'll check behind with anything that isn't a set. As you have final say your question is simply am I ahead more than 50% of the time if called. I think the answer to that is 'yes' so push. If he has Q10 so be it (and note down that he didn't push it on the turn or vb it on the river).

[AlexB182]

I agree with pushing here, can't really imagine he called with QT in the BB and I agree that he would not check a made flush to you on the river. I also think that higher sets are unlikely as he would have def reraised you PF with KK and most likely with JJ too...

[SABR42]

Yeti is a station.

He would never check a flush on the river, and he would shove a straight on the turn.

So I'm 95% sure your hand is good. Shove and let him decide what he can call with.

[too eazy]

typpe YO IM SATAN then minbet for image

[ASPoker8]

dont check river

[johnnydrama]

Newbie here and I don't play anywhere near these limits so I won't even try to comment on your play here. But I don't see the value on the end. A VB is a bet we hope that gets called by a second best hand right? What do you expect to call a river push that you beat? A flush and a couple of odd straights are out there and your push says you don't care about them, so why would he call with even 2 pair?

Just trying to understand the value in pushing the river?

Thanks!

[RapidEvolution]

[ QUOTE ]
typpe YO IM SATAN then minbet for image

[/ QUOTE ]

I am soooooooooooooooooo going to do this at some point today.

[wikemang]

i like a value shove given the sizes of your remaining stacks and the reads provided by sabr42.

[The Eureka Kid]

River: ($201) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $100</font>, BB calls $100

TheYeti said, "cant be QT... JJ?"
TheYeti said, "this sucks....AsQs"

Results: $401 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Nines) and LOST (-$195 NET)
BB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $398 (+$203 NET)

He came within about 2 seconds of timing out... I was fist pumping when he called lol. Thanks for the responses guys, despite the results I really was debating whether to bet on the end, I'll be doing it with more faith next time.