T7s vs lagtag

[KitCloudkicker]

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on the river, bet/call UI(based on your description).

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interesting...why is it not so much a C/C?

[Aces McGee]

Kit's in the small blind, so it's a little more likely that he's connected with this low flop than if he limped from other positions. In my opinion, the button isn't messing around here very often at all. I wouldn't feel bad about folding the river unimproved, and I don't expect to win by hitting a 7 on the river very often, either.

-McGee

[Man of Means]

nice play thus far

There's no way I'm folding this river. Yeah he could have something dumb like 63o but his range includes lots of 6's (A6, 65, 64,) as well as other pair+draw combos.

With a 7 or 10, you ideally want 1-2 bets going in. Bet/call (a) gets at least one bet, (b) may induce a raise if he's seen you bet/fold before, (c) avoids the dilemma of what do you do if you c/r and he 3-bets

With the flush, ya checkraise

Any other card seems like a value check/call with your pair of sevens.

[James.]

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on the river, bet/call UI(based on your description).

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interesting...why is it not so much a C/C?

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cause he'll try to bluffraise you more than half the # of times he would bluff if you check. plus for value. fwiw, if i hit the flush(or otherwise improved) i would be donking alot as well. this might be more of a style thing because i stop and go alot HU versus good players. it really ticks them off.

[KitCloudkicker]

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Kit's in the small blind, so it's a little more likely that he's connected with this low flop than if he limped from other positions. In my opinion, the button isn't messing around here very often at all. I wouldn't feel bad about folding the river unimproved, and I don't expect to win by hitting a 7 on the river very often, either.

-McGee

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mcgee, i agree, but from your perspective (assume you're villain), dont you think i would have 3 bet the flop if i really hit it hard (or called and led the turn)?

[Man of Means]

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cause he'll try to bluffraise you more than half the # of times he would bluff if you check. plus for value.

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you also need to consider (quantify) the number of times villain folds when kit bets vs. villain bets when kit checks. this applies to missed draws.

also i'm not super convinced that, after the previous action, villain raises a river donk with anything less than 2pr but he is more likely to bet, esp. a scary river card.

the only time you get a bluffraise from a worse hand is something like a lower one pair that refuses to give up the pot and refuses to just call.

[Aces McGee]

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Kit's in the small blind, so it's a little more likely that he's connected with this low flop than if he limped from other positions. In my opinion, the button isn't messing around here very often at all. I wouldn't feel bad about folding the river unimproved, and I don't expect to win by hitting a 7 on the river very often, either.

-McGee

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mcgee, i agree, but from your perspective (assume you're villain), dont you think i would have 3 bet the flop if i really hit it hard (or called and led the turn)?

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I dunno. I see the bet/call flop, c/r turn line a lot with strong hands, from good and bad players, online and live, at 2/4 and 15/30.

The action we've put in thus far exaggerates the strength of our hand UI, and yet the villain seems willing to go as many bets as we feel like at this point. I think he's crushing a pair of 7s.

-McGee

[KitCloudkicker]

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Kit's in the small blind, so it's a little more likely that he's connected with this low flop than if he limped from other positions. In my opinion, the button isn't messing around here very often at all. I wouldn't feel bad about folding the river unimproved, and I don't expect to win by hitting a 7 on the river very often, either.

-McGee

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mcgee, i agree, but from your perspective (assume you're villain), dont you think i would have 3 bet the flop if i really hit it hard (or called and led the turn)?

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I dunno. I see the bet/call flop, c/r turn line a lot with strong hands, from good and bad players, online and live, at 2/4 and 15/30.

-McGee

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if the pot was HU, absolutely.

however, there are 2 people between I and villain. dont you think my line is more consistent with a weak, very vulnerable made hand?

[Aces McGee]

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dont you think my line is more consistent with a weak, very vulnerable made hand?


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I suppose. Either way, it doesn't change how I feel about what we should do on the river. We look like we have either a weak made hand or a strong made hand, and he's still three-betting the turn.

-McGee

[StrictlyStrategy]

Who is Villain?