T7s vs lagtag

[KitCloudkicker]

full 10.

villain in this hand is a regular. plays lagtag/solid and pretty much crushes this game. we've been in a few confrontations today and so far i've had the best of it due to me outflopping him.

anyways some dumb limpers and he limps the button. i complete SB with T7s. BB checks.

flop is 236 two spades. i lead out, the bb calls, a limper calls. he raises. i call, BB calls.

turn red 7. I check, BB checks, he bets, I insta CR, BB +limper fold, he insta says "3 bet" really loudly, I call.

River plan? obv CR a flush riv but what about a 7? what about a blank?

[One Outer]

He's narrowed his hand range a lot, IMO. Could he possibly play 88 or 99 like this and not raise pf? I guess I'd discount those holdings and weight his range heavily toward a set. I'm folding UI and c/r a flush obviously. A 7 or T is the tough part. I think c/c would be best. Getting three bet would suck because we'd have to pay off.

[Clinger]

I don't think I'm folding UI--given the description, there's a possibility he's on a draw, and with the pair we will beat that draw.

That said, a lot of his range (sets) will also have the trips or two pair crushed, so I like a c/c unless we hit our flush.

I'm not sure I'd go for a river c/r as we've played the hand like a flush draw--I think our turn play looks like an obvious semibluff from villain's standpoint. Why not donk a spade?

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'm folding UI--given the description, there's a possibility he's on a draw, and with the pair we will beat that draw.

That said, a lot of his range (sets) will also have the trips or two pair crushed, so I like a c/c unless we hit our flush.

I'm not sure I'd go for a river c/r as we've played the hand like a flush draw--I think our turn play looks like an obvious semibluff from villain's standpoint. Why not donk a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could probably go around all day about whether or not to fold UI but that's not what concerns me. I think the c/r is easy because villain will be betting any river. If he's on a draw he's going to bluff at it and, I think this is the vast majority of the time, his hand is so big he'll value bet any river card.

Villain is going to bet the river almost always because it's just as likely we could be semi-bluffing a straight draw as a flush draw. So even if the spade came in he would have to bluff at the pot or valuebet because we'd play a straight draw the same way. Why wouldn't he bet the river after taking this line?

[Clinger]

I was thinking the 3 flush river would "scare" him into checking. And he might. But you're right, he won't check behind nearly often enough to make a donk more profitable than a check raise.

[One Outer]

I think a made hand weak enough to check a spade when we'd play a straight draw or pair the exact same way is an extremely narrow part of villain's range.

[KitCloudkicker]

ok, fwiw, i think folding the river UI is out of the question.

use some 2nd level thinking here - what does he think i have?

i led the flop, representing a draw to keep people in.

I CR'd the turn, representing a hand that wants people out.

imo, the most obvious hand that I could have here (in the eyes of a good player) is A7s/K7s/Q7s. if said player believes his opponent is capable of folding, he's going to be three betting this turn with a ton of hands - made hands, draws, pairs, etc. and he's probably betting the river with all of these hands UI so I can make a "good fold" with my lowly pair of sevens.

thats sort of what i was going with with this hand. against better players, optimal play also requires you to consider what they're putting YOU on. one of the reasons this guy does so well in the game is that he's very good at reading situations and knowing when to induce bad laydowns. dont fall into the trap.

[One Outer]

I thought I was doing second level thinking. It's clear on the turn that our hand is at least a pair, possibly with a draw. And he's still three betting. If he thinks you're showing down the majority of the time and he's still threeballing then I think that narrows his range.

What am I missing?

[James.]

on the river, bet/call UI(based on your description).

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
If he thinks you're showing down the majority of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the part i question.