CFB Undefeated Odds

[BobJoeJim]

And then there were six...

Like last week, I projected spreads for every remaining game for each of the six undefeateds using Sagrin's predictor ratings, then converted those spreads to *rough* win likelihoods based on spread to moneyline conversions at bookmaker.com. Here's each team's remaining schedule, odds of winning each game, and odds of winning out:

OHIO STATE:
Michigan State: 93%
@ Penn State: 76.5%
Wisconsin: 94%
Illinois: 91%
@ Michigan: 80.2%
Undefeated: 48.8%

HAWAII:
New Mexico State: 94.5%
Fresno State: 85.5%
@ Nevada: 79.5%
Boise State: 51%
Washington: 69.5%
Undefeated: 22.8%

SOUTH FLORIDA:
@ Rutgers: 68.5%
@ Connecticut: 70%
Cincinnati: 64%
@ Louisville: 75%
Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
@ Pittsburgh: 93.5%
Undefeated: 21.5%

KANSAS:
@ Colorado: 85%
@ Texas A&M: 88%
Nebraska: 94%
@ Oklahoma State: 80%
Iowa State: 100%
Missouri (neutral field): 75%
Oklahoma (presumed Big12 Title Game opponent): 27%
Undefeated: 11.4%

BOSTON COLLEGE:
@ Virginia Tech: 51%
Florida State: 73%
@ Maryland: 60%
@ Clemson: 65.5%
Miami (FL): 81.5%
Virginia Tech (Presumed title game opponent): 61%
Undefeated: 7.3%

ARIZONA STATE:
California: 72.5%
@ Oregon: 25.5%
@ UCLA: 53%
USC: 81.2%
Arizona: 91%
Undefeated: 7.2%

And as a bonus: three one-loss teams (I'll probably calculate South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia out later as well)

OKLAHOMA:
@ Iowa State: 100%
Texas A&M: 94%
Baylor: 100%
@ Texas Tech: 74.5%
Oklahoma State: 92.5%
Kansas (presumed opponent): 73%
One Loss: 47.3%

OREGON:
@ Washington: 83.5%
USC: 89.5%
Arizona State: 74.5%
@ Arizona: 90.5%
@ UCLA: 70.5%
Oregon State: 89%
One Loss: 31.6%

LSU:
Auburn: 79.5%
@ Alabama: 84%
Louisiana Tech: 98.5%
@ Mississippi: 91%
Arkansas: 89%
Florida (presumed opponent): 56%
One Loss: 29.8%

[ClarkNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
OHIO STATE:
Michigan State: 93%
@ Penn State: 76.5%
Wisconsin: 94%
Illinois: 91%
@ Michigan: 80.2%
Undefeated: 48.8%


[/ QUOTE ]

No way are they going to be -400 at Michigan, or -1000 vs. Illinois or -300 at Penn State.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]

SOUTH FLORIDA:
@ Rutgers: 68.5%
@ Connecticut: 70%
Cincinnati: 64%
@ Louisville: 75%
Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
@ Pittsburgh: 93.5%
Undefeated: 21.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

How could the Syracuse game be almost 100%? Syracuse beat Louisville.

[teamdonkey]

these aren't his personal predictions, he's using Sagarin's ratings for the spreads. Sagarin has South Florida as a 38 point favorite at home against Syracuse, making it ~100%.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
these aren't his personal predictions, he's using Sagarin's ratings for the spreads. Sagarin has South Florida as a 38 point favorite at home against Syracuse, making it ~100%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Precisely. Of course if you only use this season as a sample size then a 38 point spread would NOT be 100%, thanks to Stanford and Syracuse, but over the history of college football I'm pretty sure that to one decimal place it does round to 100.0%. Those WERE two of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[pvn]

[ QUOTE ]
ARIZONA STATE:
California: 72.5%
@ Oregon: 25.5%
@ UCLA: 53%
USC: 81.2%
Arizona: 91%
Undefeated: 7.2%

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. ASU beats USC 82% of the time?

[THAY3R]

I have a bet at 100 to 1 where I win if a team in the BCS championship game enters with 2 or more losses.


Thoughts?

[Franchise 60]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a bet at 100 to 1 where I win if a team in the BCS championship game enters with 2 or more losses.


Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

+EV

[THAY3R]

I agree, however I feel it's like ridiculously +EV.

What do you think the true odds are?

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, however I feel it's like ridiculously +EV.

What do you think the true odds are?

[/ QUOTE ]

Colorado nearly did it in '01 (?). I think that was back when margin of victory counted though.