NEED URGENT FANTASY BASEBALL ADVICE

[BobJoeJim]

With one day left in the season, I'm in first place by one point, in a 5x5 roto league. There are still several categories where positions could shift today.

The guy in second place has 198 homeruns, currently earning him 8.5 points, but he's tied with one other player, and has people at 200 and 201 in front of him, so he could potentially gain as many as 2.5 points there if he somehow hit four homers today (his lineup: Varitek, Ortiz, Frandsen, Mora, Vizquel, Ordonez, Nyjer Morgan, Ankiel, and Berkman). Meanwhile, I trail HIM by 3 RBIs, so a good day by my hitters could gain me a point there... but not if he makes his move in HRs (my lineup: Carlos Delgado, Jose Lopez, A-Rod, Peralta, Ichiro and Hawpe). In batting average, I'm one point ahead of him, so again, that's within reach, and he could gain a full point on me if he ties me there. In other words, first place is entirely up for grabs based on our offenses.

In pitching, he has NO chance of losing ground, and has no active pitchers today, but he is .01 behind someone in WHIP and that person is starting Glavine today, so he could gain another half point there...

So, if I don't play a starting pitcher, that's where we stand. If I did start a pitcher, though, I could gain half a point if he gets a win, could gain a full point if he gets 8 Ks, and could gain up to 2 points if he improves my WHIP by .01 (I'm at 1.33, three people are tied at 1.32). On the other hand, he could cost me a point if he drops my ERA by .04 (I'm at 3.94, someone is at 3.97), and could COST me up to 2 points if he drops my WHIP (there's also three people tied at 1.34).

Unfortunately I only have one pitcher I could put on the mound today... Jose bleeping Contreras.

So, do I let my one point lead ride and trust my offense to hold on against his, or do I let Contreras pitch against Nate Robertson and the Tigers and pray it doesn't blow up in my face? The game starts in ten minutes, WHAT DO I DO???

[grando]

you worried about third at all?

[grando]

looking at it, starting jose would be retarded... leave it and hope for the best

[BobJoeJim]

Not worried about third, he's 1.5 points behind, but has absolutely no room to gain ground anywhere, and could well lose a couple points today. I think I'm gonna leave Jose on the bench, he's more likely to blow up and kill me than to win with 8+ Ks...

[grando]

yeah the cons outweigh the pros by a lot

[BobJoeJim]

Glavine gave up 9 baserunners in 1/3 innings, so the guy with a 1.29 WHIP and Glavine on the mound is probably gonna finish at 1.30, tying him with the guy who's chasing me. With Contreras on the bench that means there's likely no more movement to be seen on the pitching side, so I have a half point lead and it's all up to the hitters now. It looks like Conine is at 1B for the Mets, not Delgado, that doesn't help my chance to catch up in RBIs...

[g-bebe]

When you're in the lead and don't know whether to start/sit a pitcher based on what might happen... always sit him.

[BobJoeJim]

Contreras: 6 hits, 3 runs allowed with 0 Ks, through 4. Looks like I made the right call, let's just hope my hitters come through and hold onto the lead...

[BobJoeJim]

Well, leaving Contreras on the bench was the right call, and my hitters went 6/12 so he didn't catch me in average with his 9/29 day. I think I lost though, because he got three home runs, which ought to give him the league title by 0.5 or maybe 1 point. If you had told me at the beginning of the year that I would win the league unless KEVIN FRANDSEN AND OMAR VIZQUEL BOTH HOMERED ON THE LAST DAY I think I would've been happy with that. Bloody Hell. I'll have to look at those standings tomorrow before I'm sure, but if those two home runs really cost me the title it's some pretty major life tilt.

[moayer]

hawpe is playing tomorrow. will that count in your league?