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  #21  
Old 09-09-2007, 06:17 AM
BryanC BryanC is offline
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Default Re: Big draw/wierd turn spot

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I dont check raise here for the simple reason that a 3 bet would make me want to puke


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We have at least 40% equity here. Most of the time we're a big favorite, 2:1. This is a place to raise/cap not c/c.


[/ QUOTE ]

a 2/1 favourite on the turn !? we're about 30% against any ace I think maybe you misunderstood and thought i was talking about the flop ?
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  #22  
Old 09-09-2007, 06:48 AM
deviouz deviouz is offline
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Default Re: Big draw/wierd turn spot

Wow! nice draw! it depends on the lineup how I think this hand should be played, if the players are passive you should raise this draw to grow the pot since they will probably just call you, if they are agressive and you can suspect a raise if you bet, then the check/call line would be more valuble since a raise to you hurt your odds, and you are out of position and cannot raise for a free card, to bet the ace on the turn is probably bad since BT raised pre-flop and is most likely holding an ace, and you might get raised, just call is fine
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  #23  
Old 09-09-2007, 08:29 AM
rzk rzk is offline
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Default Re: Big draw/wierd turn spot

we need him to fold to a bet roughly 20% of the time to make a turn donk better than c/c. i'd venture a guess that he folds around 25% of the time in this spot. so choosing between b/c and c/c, i'd go with b/c. but i don't know which is better, b/c or c/r. the c/r is more credible, but two conditions are required for it to work:

1. he needs to bet if we check
2. he must not have a made hand, so that he's willing to fold on the turn or river

it's pretty hard for me to evaluate the probability of these events and so i have no idea how the EV compares with the b/c line.

EDIT: actually, i doubt he folds to a c/r more often than to a donk. if that's true, the donk is clearly better as we invest less in our semi-bluff.
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  #24  
Old 09-09-2007, 09:01 AM
Raist0000 Raist0000 is offline
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Default Re: Big draw/wierd turn spot

I checkcall for sure, I think a bad player who checks behind in that flop have a-high a high percentage of the time.
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  #25  
Old 09-09-2007, 02:55 PM
vmacosta vmacosta is offline
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Default Re: Big draw/wierd turn spot

rzk,
"we need him to fold to a bet roughly 20% of the time to make a turn donk better than c/c."

if this were true I'd be donking every draw I ever had. The worry here is that after the flop chk-behind, people typically have weak SD hands like Ax and Kx. The ace is the consummate card for a pfr to both have and/or represent so when it comes he will raise our bet a lot and his k-hi or whatever will win if we don't improve.
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