Possible Facebook IPO: History reapeating itself?

[Evan]

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/20...ok_ipo_wa.html

I don’t want to talk about whether or not you think Facebook will go public. Save that discussion for bbv4stockmarkets or something. For the purpose of this thread, let’s just assume they do.

A lot of people in the tech industry have been talking about whether or not we’re in a bubble right now. One of the most popular justifications for the late 2000’s being different than the late 1990’s is that the enthusiastic investments and high valuations have not spilled over into the public markets. Facebook has been the apple of Silicon Valley’s eye and Zuckerberg has resisted offers over $1 billion in the past. According to rumors they’re doing about $500 million in annualized revenue, but I don’t think they’re making a lot of profits, if any (someone correct me if I'm wrong, this is just based on old news and the fact that they recently did another round of funding).

I think that if we do repeat a bit of history this might be a moment people look back on and say “that was the beginning of the end.” Obviously that could prove to be a good observation or completely retarded. I wouldn’t be surprised if this leads to some other well known but currently private companies ended up going after public capital. I can't predict the future but this story I've concoted does start to sound a bit like 1998 all over again.

What do you guys think?

[SanONeill]

People said the same thing about google going public. The thing is this time around the only companies going public seem to be the big ones that are well placed and making money or very close to it. It's a lot more conservative than in the past where it seemed every day companies that had barely rolled out their websites were going public.

What we do have that is reminding me of the last bubble is a shortage of developers and a big increase in payouts and perks to them(nice for someone like me).

I don't think we are entering a bubble so much as a realization that not all .coms are boo.com.

[APXG]

I'd say instead of a tech bubble, its the opposite currently going on. People are overly cautious as the bubble is still fresh in their memories. It reminds me of stories about old timers in the 1950's who kept shorting any slight market downturn b.c. the depression permanently imprinted itself in their heads, and thereby could never make any money even while the times were booming.

Zuckerberg is not making any decisions at Facebook other than tech stuff, b.c. if he were, Facebook would already be sold. Instead, its a bunch of very moneysmart and bubble-experienced VCs / Peter Thiel, who would never have the balls to hold on given their experiences if there wasn't a very strong reason behind holding. Zuckerberg knows he has no idea how to price companies, especially when he sees 1990s Zuckerbergs walking all around him who fukked up valuations back in their day b.c. of their inexperience.

[Evan]

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I'd say instead of a tech bubble, its the opposite currently going on

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Regardless of your conclusion I really can't see how this is possibly true, the companies raising 8 figures at hilarious valuations are just too common imo.

[MrBlue]

Here is the "leaked" docs of how Yahoo arrived at a $1.6 billion valuation.

Project Fraterity

MySpace will disappear just as geocities did but Facebook is here to stay.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is the "leaked" docs of how Yahoo arrived at a $1.6 billion valuation.

Project Fraterity

MySpace will disappear just as geocities did but Facebook is here to stay.

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I was going to link to that Yahoo valuation but I decided to leave it out since there have been reports of other offers since then at higher prices.

As far as Myspace disappearing, that seems like a big claim. Personally I hate Myspace and I can't understand why anyone uses it, but I'd still be pretty surprised if it disappeared.

[lala]

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It reminds me of stories about old timers in the 1950's who kept shorting any slight market downturn b.c. the depression permanently imprinted itself in their heads, and thereby could never make any money even while the times were booming.



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Exactly what I think. I've never seen so many doomsayers and permabears before, from just hearing some of the talk, you would think we were in a depression.

[MrBlue]

Yup. Lots more numbers thrown around since Yahoo's failed bid. But if you look at how Yahoo projected the growth and revenue, $1.6 billion isn't all that much especially since they've actually grown faster than originally projected by Yahoo.

Facebook is just very well done. From the photo tagging, to classifieds, to 3rd party applications on the newly launched F8 platform, it's just so much easier to use than MySpace. MySpace on the other hand chokes off 3rd party devs whenever they feel like it, is populated by a ton of spammers, and profiles look like ass.

By opening up their platform, I'm sure we'll soon see apps that allow college students to order food online (instead of going to another site, it'll all be on Facebook!), order all the books for your courses online, and etc.

A lot has changed since 2000. There are a lot more people online and people are generally more comfortable with buying stuff off the internet. I remember Webvan was a horrible failure but Fresh Direct today is a success.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It reminds me of stories about old timers in the 1950's who kept shorting any slight market downturn b.c. the depression permanently imprinted itself in their heads, and thereby could never make any money even while the times were booming.



[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I think. I've never seen so many doomsayers and permabears before, from just hearing some of the talk, you would think we were in a depression.

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When people are saying "Wow these valuations are getting really high and there's a ton of money being thrown around" you'd think we're in a depression? That actually sounds like the exact opposite of a depression to me.

[lala]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It reminds me of stories about old timers in the 1950's who kept shorting any slight market downturn b.c. the depression permanently imprinted itself in their heads, and thereby could never make any money even while the times were booming.



[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I think. I've never seen so many doomsayers and permabears before, from just hearing some of the talk, you would think we were in a depression.

[/ QUOTE ]
When people are saying "Wow these valuations are getting really high and there's a ton of money being thrown around" you'd think we're in a depression? That actually sounds like the exact opposite of a depression to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

what I'm saying is that people are quite negative and skeptical of the general economy. Rarely do you hear anything positive even though things like internet marketing and the job market for college grads are booming. Everyone talks about housing and the middle class getting destroyed. I also hear a lot of talk from some friends in financial services about how their clients want to short every time the market goes down. That sort of thing never happened in the 90s. If you want a real laugh, you should go to elitetrader, a third of the threads there are people calling market tops everyday!