AA vs 3 callers and baby flop

[redCashion]

Villain is 28/11/1 over 30 hands or so. He waited a pretty long time before he raised which made me think it might be a bit fishy, but given his aggression factor, the flop, and the number of callers I think this is a fold.

Btw, I know my flop bet is on the smallish side, but I was in a classic WA/WB situation and wanted to control the pot size a bit. I also thought that any decent sized bet into 3 callers on a flop that was unlikely to hit me was going to represent alot of strength, and given that all of the callers were loose/passive types I didn't think anyone would make a play just based on the bet size.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $197.35
BB: $95.60
UTG: $99.10
MP: $96.25
CO: $98.75
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $108.65</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, SB calls $4.50, BB calls $4.00, CO calls $4.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($20) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $34.00</font>, 3 folds

Pot Size: $68.00 ($2.35 Rake)

[Casper05]

So, you made a smaller bet so that somebody would "make a play" and then you folded?

[redCashion]

No?

[Poker monkey]

You're getting 3.5:1 in position and you fold? Is it possible he could play 77-KK plus 44, 55 the same way?

A fold here is very weak-tight. Aggression factors over 30 hands, when he's only played like 8 of them, are meaningless.

[SkyyCaptain]

The agression factor is small yes, but I'm not sure this means a set and I doubt 45s calls you pf, I'm doubtful. This could easily be another overpair but you know the villain better than I do.

[redCashion]

I don't think guys with 1 aggression factors raise the flop with anything less than QQ or a set, and a set seems more likely here. I dunno, it's not a fold I would always make, and I'm not sure it was the right play, but that's why I'm here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Casper05]

AF means nothing after 30 hands, btw. We could argue that it doesn't mean much after 300 hands as well.

[redCashion]

Well, it means more than nothing but of course it's less than definitive. I find aggression factor do converge quicker than some other stats though.

[Casper05]

I've had an aggression factor of 0 before after 50 hands.

but anyway, I don't mind this fold actually. The c/r in a multiway pot is very strong.

[Jay Riall]

Fold is good.