Northern Illinois -13.5 @ Miami (OH)

[BobJoeJim]

Only Game of the Day (ytd 4-1)

Okay, technically the Nevada/Hawaii game started on Sunday... eastern time, but since I live on the west coast I think this game still counts as the OGotD.

Miami University is 0-5. Most recently they lost 24-10 @ Cincinnati, allowing 6.2 yards per carry. Before that they lost 34-14 @ Syracuse, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Before that they lost 16-14 to Kent State at home, allowing 4.3 yards per carry (5.2 by the primary runners). Before that they lost 38-31 @ Purdue, allowing 6.1 yards per carry. Before that they lost 21-3 to Northwestern at home allowing 4.9 yards per carry.

Northern Illinois has Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe has 9.3 yards per carry. Northern Illinois has won three in a row. Northern Illinois even has a decent quarterback to supplement Wolfe (rated 134).

I would normally look a little more in depth at other factors here, but I really have no respect for any of the teams Miami has lost too. I think Miami horrible, and run defense looks like their big weakness. They've been degenerating, while Northern Illinois has been improving. It seems pretty simple to me, Wolfe goes crazy, NIU wins big. As in more than 13.5 big. Okay, fine, I'll go take a look at NIU's defense and Miami's offense now, before making this official...

Oh look! 2.3 yards per carry! I suppose quarterback Mike Kokal's stats are okay... wait, what's that? He missed the last game with injury? And his backup is rated 87.9? Kokal is listed as probable, but they coaches still say they're taking it day to day, I have trouble seeing him being 100%. Okay, so defense isn't NIU's forte, they aren't lights out, Ball State threw it well against them, and so did Ohio in their 35-23 win. Miami does have Ryne Robinson, and if Korvath turns out to be healthy they could score some. Probably still not much, though, this isn't a good offense, even if it's not a good defense either. We don't need a three TD win here, two will do. I think we have a cushion, though maybe not a huge one. I see 35-17 as the most likely score, with a higher margin as likely as a lower one. It might not be the biggest edge ever, but I feel it's definitely +ev, my money is on Garrett Wolfe. Northern Illinois -13.5

[mulebennett]

also note that Kokal is responsible for 5 of the team's 8 offensive touchdowns--4 of which came during the 31-38 loss @ Purdue.

meanwhile Wolfe has given games of 287 (OhioSt), 196 (Ohio), 263 (Buffalo), 240 (IndianaSt), and 353 (BallSt) in terms of yards. Wolfe has 12 of the team's 18 offensive touchdowns and the not-so-stellar Miami OH run defense should be stuffing the box for Wolfe, opening ridiculous downfield situations for the NoIll passing game.

i like the analysis, thanks for the OGotD pick, BJB. best of luck

[sollog]

I just don't like the whole Miami is coming home after two road games and NI is going on its second road game angle...good analysis though

[MicroBob]

Yeah, Miami is at home in a night game so I expect they may actually have some modest home-field support.

Sagarin rating difference between the two teams is only 3 points.

NIU is definitely the better team. But this is a road game for them, Miami has some national TV pride to carry into this, and 14 points is an awful lot to cover on the road.


I took Miami +14, +100 when I had the opportunity.


standard disclaimer that I'm a Miami alum so may be a bit biased...but I did pick against them against Syracuse a couple weeks ago (a no-brainer imo and Syracuse easily covered).

[mulebennett]

the moneyline is -600, how often do you guys think NoIll wins outright?

[MicroBob]

Definitely don't think the ML is worth it here.

I'm almost tempted to take the ML for Miami at +525.

NIU is decent but they just aren't so good that they deserve to be 14 point faves (or 13.5 now on many sites) on the road. They have zero worthwhile wins.
They are 3-2 with their wins coming vs. Buffalo, Indiana State and Ball State. I would still rate Miami as being slightly better than the first two of those three.


They beat Indiana St 48-14. Practically meaningless.
Indiana St lost to Purdue 60-35, E. Illinois 31-21, Murray St, 59-40, S. Illinois 55-3, Youngstown St 55-17.

NIU beat Ball State 40-28. A bit more meaningful since BSU is somewhat competitive. But certainly not anything to brag about.

NIU beat Buffalo 31-13. Again, not too much to brag about. Buffalo isn't as bad as Indiana State but their only win was 9-3 over Temple.

NIU lost to Ohio 35-23. Ohio is 3-3 with a 29-3 win over UT-Martin and 27-20 over Western Michigan.



Miami has been pretty lousy this year including a surprising 16-14 loss at home to Kent State in which they were 14 point favorites (Kent State has since proven they are a team to be reckoned with and are now 4-2).
And a loss in their opener to Northwestern 21-3 and NW is clearly awful, awful, awful this yr.

But Miami lost in OT at Purdue and was competitive with Cincinnati (trailed 17-10 early 4th Q before losing 24-10).


Yes, Garrett Wolfe will be difficult to stop and I don't think Miami is very good.
But -600 on NIU on the road seems like a really risky bet to me.


We'll see. It wouldn't exactly surprise me to see Miami get clobbered on their home-field in this one. But I definitely don't think it's automatic.

[mulebennett]

well i went ahead and bet the moneyline (-500). the last-minute change made me do it. so i'll definitely be posting in this thread for the next couple of hours. and as i type this, garrett wolfe just made mince-meat of the miami defense and scampered in for a 15-yard touchdown. AWESOME

[mulebennett]

NIU 7
Miami(OH) 3 end 1st

thoughts so far:
1. Miami got really really unlucky with that punt that went off the Miami player's foot. it gave NIU the ball at the 22 yard line, responsible for NIU's only TD so far.

2. looks like Miami really prepared for Garrett Wolfe, which i imagine is consistent with every team's scouting report, but they have really done a good job stopping him so far (minus that one TD).

3. Miami's kicker appears to be horrendous with kickoffs. he has kickoffs of 53 and 46 yards. NIU has had a relatively short field to work with so far.

[mulebennett]

yuck--i don't know who's watching, but Kokal just threw an 80 yard pass touchdown, looked like he threaded the needle perfectly to get it in the WR's arms. luckily there was a botched snap and they missed the PAT, huge for anyone who bet -13/12.5 for NIU. and the Miami special teams continues to be horrible, allowing another NIU possession to start at midfield

[dawade]

HERE COME THE FIGHTING BEN ROETHLISBERGERS!