Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26

[BobJoeJim]

"Only game of the day analysis" YTD: 2-0

I'm posting this a day early, because I really like a play, and the line seems to be moving against it, so it's worth getting on before tomorrow.

Southern Miss:
@ FLorida - L, 34-7
SE Louisiana - W, 45-0
NC State - W, 37-17

RB Damion Fletcher is tearing it up on the ground, for 6.1 yards per carry, and QB Jeremy Young is doing what he needs to do to keep the defense honest, hitting 58% for 7.85 yards per attempt (125). Against NC State the offense was clicking on all cylinders, both running and throwing at will, and massively stuffed the run defensively. Against Florida they couldn't stop Leak, but that's Florida, and as a bright spot they still ran it for 4.8 ypc. Killing SE Louisiana doesn't mean much but at least they killed them. This looks like a very solid offense, especially in the rushing attack, and a decent defense, particularly against the run.

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17

Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

My take:
The only hint of strength in UCF's pathetic offense, is a running game that might be mediocre, instead of bad, and Southern Miss has been shutting down the run this year. Defensively it bodes well for UCF that they're slowing the run down some, but they haven't been light's out, and they've been destroyed through the air by everyone. Southern Miss can throw it well enough, to go along with what so far is a great running game, to move it easily I think. Oh yeah, and last year Southern Miss led 45-7 at halftime, winning 52-31 with UCF backdooring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Southern Miss is -4.5 on Pinny and -5 on Cris, but as of now you can still get -4 -107 in the Mansion exchange or -4 -110 at TheGreek as of this posting. This is @ Central Florida, so I see a 31-14 type score here. Neutral site 34-7 would sound more likely. I just jumped on this line, and recommend you do the same.

(Also, if UCF is as bad on offense as I think, the under may be good too, but it's a much weaker lean. Southern Miss -4 is my bet here).

[BobJoeJim]

Edit on the under: It was 50 at some sites when I started this writeup, now 48 everywhere, so I was probably right about there being some potential value, but there's probably less now.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ty again for your 'only game of the day analysis'

You've convinced me

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
"Only game of the day analysis" YTD: 2-0

I'm posting this a day early, because I really like a play, and the line seems to be moving against it, so it's worth getting on before tomorrow.

Southern Miss:
@ FLorida - L, 34-7
SE Louisiana - W, 45-0
NC State - W, 37-17

RB Damion Fletcher is tearing it up on the ground, for 6.1 yards per carry, and QB Jeremy Young is doing what he needs to do to keep the defense honest, hitting 58% for 7.85 yards per attempt (125). Against NC State the offense was clicking on all cylinders, both running and throwing at will, and massively stuffed the run defensively. Against Florida they couldn't stop Leak, but that's Florida, and as a bright spot they still ran it for 4.8 ypc. Killing SE Louisiana doesn't mean much but at least they killed them. This looks like a very solid offense, especially in the rushing attack, and a decent defense, particularly against the run.

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17

Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

My take:
The only hint of strength in UCF's pathetic offense, is a running game that might be mediocre, instead of bad, and Southern Miss has been shutting down the run this year. Defensively it bodes well for UCF that they're slowing the run down some, but they haven't been light's out, and they've been destroyed through the air by everyone. Southern Miss can throw it well enough, to go along with what so far is a great running game, to move it easily I think. Oh yeah, and last year Southern Miss led 45-7 at halftime, winning 52-31 with UCF backdooring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Southern Miss is -4.5 on Pinny and -5 on Cris, but as of now you can still get -4 -107 in the Mansion exchange or -4 -110 at TheGreek as of this posting. This is @ Central Florida, so I see a 31-14 type score here. Neutral site 34-7 would sound more likely. I just jumped on this line, and recommend you do the same.

(Also, if UCF is as bad on offense as I think, the under may be good too, but it's a much weaker lean. Southern Miss -4 is my bet here).

[/ QUOTE ]

The under was a play that I had marked if the total had come just a smidge higher, but I think it was close at 50.5 and that most of the value is gone at 48 (would still play that side if I were betting, though).

I would also lean toward So. Miss. here at -4.

Good analysis.

ML4L

[wrongarm300]

So what's the verdict? Bodog has Southern Miss -6.5 and the o/u is 47. It's teaseable up to 7 pts. either way

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
So what's the verdict? Bodog has Southern Miss -6.5 and the o/u is 47. It's teaseable up to 7 pts. either way

[/ QUOTE ]
Verdict #1: I was smart to post this a day early.
Verdict #2: I was on the right side of the line move, good sign for my handicapping.
Verdict #3: You need to read the forums more frequently (or hesitate to follow less) :P

If my score predictions are right, then this bet is still good at -6.5, I still like the line, but it's definitely not as good as it was at -4. I would still take it, but be willing to accept it if they win by 6.

[wrongarm300]

I did read yesterday, however my money is tied into Bodog right now and they didn't put the lines up until late last night, and it opened on there at 6.5

[BobJoeJim]

Heh, yeah, understandable, I'm just being my sarcastic self, as usual. Anyway, yeah, I see this game as a huge mismatch, with lots of blowout potential, so I still like 6.5, but I'm glad to be locked in at -4 instead. Best of luck if you follow, may all our bets win.

Oh, and as for the total of 47, I'd bet under before I bet over, but I don't see much value in it anymore, I would consider about 45 to be fair. No recommended bet there, but my lean is still under.

[wrongarm300]

I can make it a two way teaser and get Southern Miss at pick and the o41 or u53 1/2

[BiPolar_Nut]

[ QUOTE ]
I can make it a two way teaser and get Southern Miss at pick and the o41 or u53 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]

I teased it for So Miss +1.5 and U 54.5

Prolly went way overboard on the tease...major n00b here, never did a tease before.