Auburn/Buffalo - correlated parlay?

BobJoeJim · #1 09-21-2006, 01:30 AM

Auburn -41.5, o/u 48.5

With the line predicting a 45-3.5 win for Auburn, it's a classic case where a correlated parlay on the dog/under of the fave/over. I don't have any actual lean on the line, though, it feels pretty right to me. Which parlay would be better, and is it +ev? Discuss.

inside?? · #2 09-21-2006, 01:34 AM

Even though Auburn came off a big game last week I think they can pretty much call the number. It should be at least 35-0 at halftime. As long as the starters don't get yanked I would go cover/over. I do think you are correct that betting both sides should net you a profit.

NoChance · #3 09-21-2006, 01:45 AM

I took another look at that. Taking a peek at the Auburn schedule, they play @ S Carolina just 5 days later. I can't imagine the starters play long to stay fresh for a bigger game in 5 days. I do think the reserves could probably still beat up on Buffalo though.

iggymcfly · #4 09-21-2006, 01:46 AM

I actually like Buffalo and the under here. Buffalo's been at least semi-competitive this year, and Auburn's going to be absolutely sleepwalking through this one. I could see a final like 31-3 here.

Lori · #5 09-21-2006, 01:47 AM

We're really unlucky to lose if it goes under 48 and we have +41.5

Not quite so unlucky to lose if we go over 48 and -41.5 as it could be 35-14 or something

I like the unders version.

Lori

Josh W · #6 09-21-2006, 02:16 AM

Where can you make a bet like this? I see pinnacle doesn't allow it.

Would it be incorrect to bet both sides? If you're only getting 13:5 on a two team parlay, you'd still be effectively winning 1.6 units or losing 2, so it would need to come in...waht..56% of the time? Seems reasonable.

Josh

ImBen · #7 09-21-2006, 04:35 AM

Good luck finding a book to take these parlays.

Homer · #8 09-21-2006, 11:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck finding a book to take these parlays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I needed the good luck, but found one.

BobJoeJim · #9 09-21-2006, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good luck finding a book to take these parlays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I needed the good luck, but found one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Which one was that?

NajdorfDefense · #10 09-21-2006, 12:03 PM

I like the unders version with a game in 5 days.