Oklahoma +4 @ Oregon

[BobJoeJim]

I bring word from Eugene that cornerback Jackie Bates is out for the season with a fractured leg. Without him, the Ducks will be starting TWO freshman cornerbacks, including Willie Glasper who looked HORRENDOUS when he came in for Bates late in the Fresno game. If Oregon brings the safeties up to stop Peterson then the corners ARE bad enough that even Paul Thompson can burn them. If Oregon leaves the safeties back in pass coverage, well, Adrian Peterson versus a defensive line that looked outmatched by Fresno, and linebackers who I don't believe have made a play yet this season, can't be a good sign for the Ducks.

Bates was the only corner Oregon had who was good enough to keep Malcolm Kelly in check by himself. Without Bates, the entire defensive scheme has to change, into a complete lose-lose situation.

Now yes, on the other side of the ball Oregon is still Oregon. Strong will be back, and Stewart will be 100%, so the Ducks should be able to keep up. Dixon looks really good this year, the offense is its standard high flying self. And Autzen Stadium is a great home field advantage. Straight up, I would still take the Ducks, and probably even at -1. Two points would be too much to give up without Bates, though, I think. Push it across the 3, though, and I STRONGLY recommend Oklahoma. +4 is a steal here. I would also take a long look at over 50 here, but I have never been comfortable with totals, so I won't *officially* recommend it.

[MyTurn2Raise]

hmm....very interesting game

my inclination is to stay far, far away

I have had zero handle on the Sooners the last 3 seasons, despite watching the majority of their games. They puzzle me to no end. You present a logical argument, but underestimate Oklahoma's ability to shoot themselves in the foot on offense IMO.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
You ... underestimate Oklahoma's ability to shoot themselves in the foot on offense IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
I certainly hope you're right. I really do. Please, God, let you be right.

[iggymcfly]

I'd still lean towards Oregon here. Having weak CBs isn't really a problem, because Paul Thompson can't hit the corners even if they're left uncovered. Washington supposedly has a terrible secondary this year, and he didn't really exploit it all that well.

I liked Oregon a lot here when the line opened and was basically waiting for the squares to jump on OU with logic like "they're ranked higher, they should be the favorite". I'd still bet on the Ducks if you forced me to take a side, but I probably won't play it unless it drops to -2.5 or at least -3.

Actually, I'm lying to myself. I know I'll end up throwing at least a unit on Oregon, just because I'm so convinced the Sooners will find a way to blow it.

[aces_dad]

I was looking at this game at a book with the following spread totals:

Oklahoma +4.5 2.000
Oregon -4.5 1.901

Looks like all the juice (for this exact spread) is on Oregon? Is this common?

2nd level question from a newb, would that imply they have enough sharp action on Oregon for this spread? But if you liked Oklahoma this is a good line?