Following 2+2's Collective Advice

[BobJoeJim]

Well, having just won $1000 on a certain free bet, I have decided to give Mansion some action. So, I'm trying an experiment. I'm going to follow 2+2 consensus from the 3+1 challenge, by duplicating the most popluar bets. My bankroll for this is going to be half of my Pittsburgh winnings, so the initial unit is $5. Since I'm betting in the exchange, I'll be placing my bets to win 1.01 units, so that they win 1 after the 1% commission.

First of all, some basic stats on the 3+1 picks. So far, there has been 1020 total units wagered, 815 on spreads and 205 on totals. This means that a spread with 25.5 or a total with 6.5 units on it is "average." I looked for games with significantly more than average action on them, minimal action on the other side, and a line that is at least as good as what was listed in the 3+1 contest.

Since totals recieved so much less overall action, I consider those to be softer consensus, so I'm betting to win 1 unit on all totals and 2 units on all spreads this week.

Here are this week's picks:
Jets @ Titans under 36 (-107) - 12 units on the under, 0 on the over in 3+1.

Bengals +2.5 @ Chiefs (-107) - With the Bengals only +2, there were 43 units on them, to 10 on the Chiefs.

Falcons @ Panthers -4.5 (-107) under 40 (-107) - At -6 the Panthers were a 42-18 preference, and the under had a 10-0 edge.

Eagles -4.5 @ Texans (-107) - THE most popular pick, by far, 98 units are riding on Philly, to only 16 on Houston. This is the 3+1 POTW.

Cowboys @ Jaguars under 36.5 (-107) - Under 36 was a 15-0 play.

Bears @ Packers under 35.5 (-110) - Under 35 had a 26-6 edge, making it the most popular total bet.

Colts -3 @ Giants (-108) under 48.5 (-107) - Colts are a 43-4 play, Under 48 is a 20-3 play.

Vikings @ Redskins over 35.5 (-102) - This is a semi-mistake, since it's over 34.5 that was a 15-0 play, but it was the first consensus over and I forgot that high is bad [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Here's hoping they don't hit exactly 35, at least the juice is low.

Chargers -3 @ Raiders (+107) - The secondary POTW. With a 57-2 margin this is a hugely popular pick, and +107 isn't a typo.

DO ME WELL BOYS!!!

[Freerollin`]

I'm not sure that this is a good idea. 3+1 involves a LOT of 2+2ers who are never in sports betting other than for the challenge itself. I don't want to criticize, or anything, but I'd venture to guess that the majority of the people in that thread are public bettors.

I'm not saying this to sound high and mighty. I just don't think you're spending your money very well.

[BobJoeJim]

I agree completely, but I wanted to experiment, and remeber, the actual point of this is to give Mansion some cover play. For the record, though, I do NOT particularly encourage you to follow these picks. Do so at your own risk. Or even feel free to fade!

EDIT: And as for square plays, it does concern me that I have three road faves, but at least I only have one over. Oh well, gamb0000l!! I figure seeing these picks will also add to the enjoyment of the 3+1 challenge for some.

[Ortho]

I play in a number of these contests and select my picks randomly using my wife or cat. I do think that since there is no cash prize that the standard might be a bit higher, though, but there probably is enough common sense involved where a consensus is reached you'd probably do just as well or better to just blindly fade the consensus and the laugh when you pwn them with your fading. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mrbaseball]

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I wanted to experiment

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A "higher percentage" experiment would be to fade 3+1 or any other consensus you can uncover. If you can get enough people to agree on a pick it just has to be bad [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[chopstick]

[ QUOTE ]
I play in a number of these contests and select my picks randomly using my wife or cat.

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I can understand asking your wife. How does your cat assist? Two pieces of paper, and see which one it sniffs first or something?

[Ortho]

It doesn't work very well, to be honest. Yes, I was using 2 poker chips, one for home and one for away, and also tried slips of paper, but I do not think the cat was behaving randomly. (These are the sorts of things I shouldn't reveal online).

My wife, it's much easier. I just hit her with the teams, she tells me who wins, and I flip a coin and bet her picks or the other side across the board.

The general point I was trying to make was that if you don't actually really know what you're doing, you're likely to come up with the same picks as everyone else, which is usually the wrong side. I personally believe that random picking outperforms that, plus it's much faster. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wanted to experiment

[/ QUOTE ]

A "higher percentage" experiment would be to fade 3+1 or any other consensus you can uncover. If you can get enough people to agree on a pick it just has to be bad [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I am doing this very thing, but on Pinny. Thanks for compiling the info BobJoeJim and GL.

[BobJoeJim]

Lol, thanks. Unless I get lucky, I'm assuming this "experiment" will lead directly to a new gambling discipline rule for me: Never place a bet within 24 hours of doubling my bankroll on one game! Hopefully, it's a rule that will come into play often [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I would wish you good luck on your fading, except for the obvious downside for me. Meh, whatever, GL!!! I think you've got the edge on me this week though.

And while I don't expect to actually bet it again, I would consider compiling this info every week, for the sake of general interest, or for people who want to fade.