CFB Undefeated Odds

[Franchise 60]

I wanna say like 4 or 5 to 1, but I'd guess some people might think thats way to high. Personally I think there is a really good chance of it happening, especially with the way that this season is going.

I'm just going off the top of my head so I don't know what the true odds would be. If a 2 loss SEC champ gets in over a 1 loss South Florida/WV than I really like the chances a lot more

The biggest hurdle would be a 1 loss Oklahoma, Oregon, Cal, or USC only losing 1 game, and OSU losing at PSU in a close game and then winning the rest of their games, or running the table. The best bet is a 2 loss LSU or Florida, especially with a LSU/Florida SEC title game.

Its def an insanely good bet imo.

[Austiger]

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I agree, however I feel it's like ridiculously +EV.

What do you think the true odds are?

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I doubt it is ridiculously +EV. The major candidates would all be from the SEC (LSU, Florida, Auburn, in that order.) Highly unlikely. Probably better than 100-1 though.

[TruFloridaGator]

LSU did come from way back all the way to finish #4 last year by winning out after 2 losses, this year sets up for it even more. Sexy bet.

I think UF has the best chance if they play a 1 loss LSU team in the SECCG & win. Auburn & LSU have to deal with the possibility of playing a lower ranked 2 loss SEC east team, which may not be enough.

So many games in the tough SEC East left that would hurt that scenario. They need 1 of those teams(UK,USCe,UT,UF) to win out.

[waldo027]

Kansas is 75% to beat Mizzou on a neutral field?

[BobJoeJim]

Yes, according to the spreads predicted by Sagarin's "predictor" rankings, Kansas is 75% to beat Mizzou on a neutral field and Arizona State is 81% to beat USC at home. And yes, Ohio State is 91% to beat Illinois at home and 80% to win at Michigan. Again, according to Sagarin's current rankings [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

#2 Ohio State - 95.55
#4 Kansas - 93.28
#10 Arizona State - 88.67
#15 Missouri - 84.68
#20 Michigan - 81.28
#29 USC - 79.56
#34 Illinois - 78.28

With a home advantage of 2.93 you can calculate the spreads yourself, and an 8.5 point spread (KU-MU) translates to an average moneyline that gives a win percentage somewhere around the 73-76% mark. The others work out as I calculated them as well. How accurate is all this? Only as accurate as Sagarin, and I have my doubts, but at least it gives us some interesting numbers to toss around, and to use as a basis for figuring out more complex questions like how likely is a 2-loss champ, or what fair odds on any given team to win it all are. I'll take the borderline semi-accuracy of Sagarin's rankings over random opinion, at least.

[KUJustin]

FWIW, it appears Sagarin thinks Kansas is about 11 pts better than Vegas does. If you adjust the lines given by Sagarin by 11 they look very close to what I would expect them to be (and I follow both Kansas and point spreads pretty closely).

Doing those adjustments puts KU at about 8% to go undefeated and an expect regular season win total of almost exactly 10.

[BobJoeJim]

Yeah, Kansas has a profile that any MOV-inclusive computer power ranking will LOVE. The question is, are they being overrated by the computers or uderrated by Vegas? I do believe that it's more likely the computers that are wrong, since Vegas DOES do this for a living, and normally knows how to make adjustments pretty well when they're wrong about a team. If they keep putting up lines so different from what the computers say (-26 last week was way less than computers thought it should've been, and computers said Kansas should have been favored at KSU) there's probably a good reason to think Vegas is right. They usually are. The devil's advocate in me, though, would like to point out that Kansas IS 5-0 against the spread this year [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]