UCF @ Marshall -3.5

[BobJoeJim]

Only Game of the Day (YTD 4-0)

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17
Southern Miss - L, 19-14

Pre Southern Miss analysis: Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

UCF did better than I expected against Southern Miss, showing some signs of life on offense, with Javid James finally stepping up as a second receiving option, and Kevin Smith running for 129 yards (4.3 per carry). The defense also did all right, containing Damion Fletcher (by which I mean "holding" him to 4.7 ypc). Still, I can't bring myself to be particularly impressed by this team, it's still a low end offense and a mediocre defense. There's a reason they're 1-3 right now.

Marshall:
@ West Virginia - L, 42-10
Hofstra - W, 54-31
@ Kansas State - L, 23-7
@ Tennessee - L, 33-7

Marshall has a decent running game, averaging 4.5 ypc, and led by Ahmad Bradshaw's 349 yards (5.1). This is a run first offense with 142 carries to only 97 attempted passes, but when they do have to throw it has been pretty mediocre. Very little stands out in any of their box scores, clearly they can't keep up with a top 15 team, but they won't have to tonight.

My Take: This is a battle of two teams yet to beat a 1-A opponent. One of them has been losing close games at home to mid-level opponents, the other has been getting blown out on the road by good teams. Neither looks to have a significant matchup edge. Overall, this looks like a pretty even match, and the home team is favored by 3.5. I just don't see a play here. Hopefully this analysis can spark a little discussion, but I'm staying away from it, so no continuation of my "Only Game Of The Day" heater today.

[freewheeler]

Chicken!!

You just want to keep your perfect record.

(lol)

I must admit, this is sure a crappy looking game to bet...

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Chicken!!

You just want to keep your perfect record.

(lol)

I must admit, this is sure a crappy looking game to bet...

[/ QUOTE ]
Bawk Bawk Braaawk

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

edit: Oh, and speaking of chickens, Clucko over at CFN picked Marshall, so if you're feeling like a compulsive gambler today, you could follow that if you'd like [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Chicken!!

You just want to keep your perfect record.

(lol)

I must admit, this is sure a crappy looking game to bet...

[/ QUOTE ]
Bawk Bawk Braaawk

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It won't be the "only game of the day," but if you want to go ahead and give some analysis on the TCU game tomorrow night, specifically the line-move, I'd love to hear it. Nobody responded to my thread... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

ML4L

[BobJoeJim]

I'll look at it ML, the line move did seem strange, maybe I can figure out why it happened...