Theory question: How many lines are "off"?

[20Five]

I can see it when booking at two different spots, but I thought he was referring to just one spot, betting either side of the bet at +ev ?

[Thremp]

Possibly not in the same exact bet. But there are things on the same game... Such as when the RL and ML differ too much etc. that would be EV.

But no betting -110/-110 would never be +EV.

[sfwusc]

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly not in the same exact bet. But there are things on the same game... Such as when the RL and ML differ too much etc. that would be EV.

But no betting -110/-110 would never be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

So A +7.5 @-110
and
B -6.5 @-110

Is not EV+?

I think more than 1 in 20 end on 7.

-SFWUSC

[20Five]

you wouldnt be finding a line like that at one book in real life. but theoretically speaking yes i guess that would qualify

[ QUOTE ]
So A +7.5 @-110
and
B -6.5 @-110

[/ QUOTE ]

[sfwusc]

No one said it had to be at one book.

-SFWUSC

[20Five]

one bet, one book.. just making the assumption. clearly -6.5 and +7.5 are two different bets.

[Thremp]

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I can see it when booking at two different spots, but I thought he was referring to just one spot, betting either side of the bet at +ev ?

[/ QUOTE ]

[mrbaseball]

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if you trust your abilities as a handicapper, and you analyze every single game each week, and are willing to take any edge, no matter how small

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak to football but in baseball the answer is no. Baseball is different though in that baseball teams have 10 times as many games as a football team does. This makes it easier to cherry pick since you get a full slate almost every day compared to once a week.

But no handicapper is good enough to take the very slim edges. Variance is simply too great and you can never really tell if those percieved slim edges are really edges or not. I build in a "fudge factor" to my wagering and won't bet the 10 to 15 cent "percieved" edges my formulas spit out because I know those are really too close to call. But the luxury of baseball wagering is the vast amount of games too choose from making it real easy to pass up the close calls and only go with the bigger edges.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you trust your abilities as a handicapper, and you analyze every single game each week, and are willing to take any edge, no matter how small

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak to football but in baseball the answer is no. Baseball is different though in that baseball teams have 10 times as many games as a football team does. This makes it easier to cherry pick since you get a full slate almost every day compared to once a week.

But no handicapper is good enough to take the very slim edges. Variance is simply too great and you can never really tell if those percieved slim edges are really edges or not. I build in a "fudge factor" to my wagering and won't bet the 10 to 15 cent "percieved" edges my formulas spit out because I know those are really too close to call. But the luxury of baseball wagering is the vast amount of games too choose from making it real easy to pass up the close calls and only go with the bigger edges.

[/ QUOTE ]
I meant that you're willing to take any *actual* edge, not that you're willing to take any perceived edge. My question is basically, how many games have no *correct* +ev side, because the juice makes both sides -ev, versus how many games *could* be bet profitably if you knew the true odds. That's why it was a theory question, but as has been said it's probably not a very meaningful question, since with good line shopping the answer is probably: almost every game, if you get in at the right time.

I still feel there's a potentially interesting discussion buried somewhere in this concept, but I think I asked the wrong question to generate it, and I'm not quite sure what the right question is...

[beetman]

I was talking about betting at two different locations, where several books were offering -3.5 -105, and another was offering +4 +100. -3.5 -105 is about the same mathematically as -4 +102 or +103, so one of those bets must be +EV and both might be.