Randomness

[pinkis_4girls]

Admittedly this question deals with some issues outside of poker, but I thought I'd pose it regardless in case it was of interest. I was watching groundhog day - a film in which a man lives the same day over and over again- and started wondering to myself what I would do If I was experiencing the same day again and again. As a poker player I immediately thought of the huge edge I would have over my opponenets in knowing exactly what cards I would get, what they would get and what the flop etc would be, as a result of having experienced the event again and again. But then I thought again. If I was to live the same day over and over again would I get the same cards or would the cards I get change every time as each dealing of cards is an independant random event non-dependant on other factors. Thoughts?

[RustyBrooks]

So let me see if I've got this straight. In the magical situation where you repeat every day over and over again
* You accept that all the actions that happen will happen again, a la groundhogs day, except where you intervene (catch the boy falling from the tree, etc)
* But you expect that the randomness of cards might still apply

And this is in the poker theory section because?

[pinkis_4girls]

Well theoretically the reason you would see events occurring again and again in a repetitive manner is because the action which causes the events occurence would be consistently occuring. I.e. On a repetitive day a car would break down at the same time consistenly because such an event is not random but the result of other consistenly occurring actions. When a poker hand is dealt the event is supposedly random and not dependant on outside variables. If this is truely the case then consequently on a groundhog style day we should see different cards being dealt everyday.

If you were to see the same poker hand being dealt again and again on this repetetive day that would indicate that the dealing of the poker hand is not random but subject to outside variables. Thus therefore in a real life situation it would be potentially possible for one to work out what cards he would receive if he knew what these determining variables were.

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
When a poker hand is dealt the event is supposedly random and not dependant on outside variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It's not dependent on the starting conditions of the deck? We're assuming that everyone will do everything in the exact same way as before, and that, I assume all starting conditions are precisely the same, so, you'll get the same shuffles, etc.

Deals are random because we don't know the initial conditions, nor do we know what events will be applied to the deck - how many shuffles, how thorough, etc.

Even electronic shuffles/deals aren't really truly random in the grand scheme of things, they're just dependent on variables we don't have access to. Computer random number generators are predictable given knowledge of the starting conditions, in some cases, unless the random number generator is powered by a pretty reliable source of randomness (some are. I guess major poker sites, etc, probably employ devices to provide randomness, like from thermal noise or some such stuff)

[Rek]

mmmmmm you do know that Groundhog Day was only a film. It can't really happen. In your imaginary world you could have the same cards or not - it's your choice, you decide.

In my imaginary world all the girls are young, beautiful , naked and they all want me. I'm rich and sucessful. To hell with the cards.

[Adrian20XX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When a poker hand is dealt the event is supposedly random and not dependant on outside variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Deals are random because we don't know the initial conditions, nor do we know what events will be applied to the deck - how many shuffles, how thorough, etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree with this point, the deal is deterministic in this case unless the only not deterministic variable (i.e. the player that is living the day again) takes another action.

But, as you would be constantly adjusting your actions, the deal will be constantly changing and the only deal you are sure of is the first one, and the ones that you "fix" your actions, from the moment you make a change from the previous day, you start to play new cards. Let's say the first day, you seat at the table, first hand, and try to catch a flush draw. You call the flop and turn, and fold the river. Now the dealer takes the cards in a certain order, shuffles the deck 17 times, and gets a deck with state X.

Second day, you seat at the table, get the same first hand. Now you know the flush will not come, so you decide to fold on the flop. Now the initial condition of the deck is different, and the dealer may shuffle it differently. So, the starting deck for hand two will not be X, will be Y.

So you'll be able to get the same cards, as long as you do the same actions. If you decide to chase the flush the second day, but still you don't do it in the same way (time for example, you make a joke to the dealer, whatever), second hand will not get the deck X.

So, you can adjust it hand by hand to have a perfect session. But probably this will not be the best EV session, they might be a session with a couple of losses in betweeen, that gets the deck in better conditions for later hands so you get a bigger EV.

Regards ...

[Logitech]

zzz

[osh]

Only the first hands [give, that you sit at the table at the same moment every new day. After that the deck will not be the same due new folds made after you play your hand differently than in the first day. I mean, as long as You don't change - cards won't change. Don't forget, you must muck the cards in the same spot and order every time. It's pretty hard.

[LarryLaughs]

OK, this is not related to poker theory, but here is my take.

Assuming that only your interference can change something.
Otherwise the events repeat like clockwork.

If you do not play. Just observe quietly. You should see the same cards every day.

However, if you do play and you use the knowledge you got, you are changing the behaviour of the other players and maybe the dealer too. You might stack someone with the first hand and then you have less players than in the original day 0 where you took down all the hands.

Now, on day 1, your action causes the game to have less players. This should mean that the same cards are not dealt in the same way anymore, are they?

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When a poker hand is dealt the event is supposedly random and not dependant on outside variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It's not dependent on the starting conditions of the deck? We're assuming that everyone will do everything in the exact same way as before, and that, I assume all starting conditions are precisely the same, so, you'll get the same shuffles, etc.

Deals are random because we don't know the initial conditions, nor do we know what events will be applied to the deck - how many shuffles, how thorough, etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this actually true though? There was a paper that showed that seven riffle shuffles would make a deck pretty close to random. It actually will go from ordered to random at the seventh shuffle.

Looking for a reference, I found this. Seems there's some dispute whether you need seven, but no dispute at all that a well-shuffled deck is random.